Page 139 - TransportationPlanUsetsGuide

Future Demand
Forecasting future active transportation demand is challenging. Modelers must make assumptions about a number of
future conditions, from land use and density patterns to fuel and parking prices. The Regional Travel Demand Model
estimates future mode share for each traffic analysis zone based on these and other factors. The mode share forecast for
Washington County in 2035 predicted very small gains in active transportation mode share (Figure 1-4). Walking, bicycling
and transit useage rates increased by just a few tenths of a percentage point in all categories and geographies. In the ur-
ban area, the share of trips that use active transportation modes is projected to increase from 7.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
By contrast, applying Metro’s 2014 RTP performance target for active transpor¬tation modes would result in 22 percent
(14 percent walk, 3 percent bike and 5 percent transit). Despite the current forecasts, Wash¬ington County is in a good
position for growth in travel by active transportation modes as summarized below.

• Information technology workers, many of whom are employed in Washington County’s growing “Silicon For-
est,” tend to demand quality-of-life amenities in the places where they choose to live. This includes access
to good transit and opportunities to walk or bike for transportation and/or recreation. Increasing active
transportation options, along with other quality-of-life amenities, may convince more high-tech workers to
live near where they work in Washington County and bike or walk to work, or use light rail in conjunction
with “last mile” solutions such as bike share.

• Across all professions, younger workers are driving less and using active transportation modes more, com-
pared to their older co-workers.
• Washington County is home to Nike, whose products focus on active pursuits like running; and whose pres-
ence may have a spillover effect on the local population, such as spurring increased interest in running
and fitness.

• Portland, a well-known hub of active transportation use, has an undeniable influence on Washington
County. Washington County, by virtue of its close proximity to Portland and strong jobs base, also experi-
ences much of this active transportation culture.
• The relatively flat terrain of the Tualatin Valley, combined with an ever increasing mileage of “complete
streets”, multi-use trails and high capacity transit routes, creates a favorable environment for increased
use of active transportation travel modes. Washington County has the potential to become a North Ameri-
can model for suburban active transportation utilization.

Community Comments about Active Transportation
Active transportation themes were prevalent throughout the public involvement process for the 2014 TSP update. One
of the seven “community values” developed by the TSP Community Advisory Committee is to have a transportation
system that “makes it safe and convenient to get around by biking, walking or taking transit.” Stakeholder interviews
(representing diverse interests from large private sector employers to environmental advocacy groups), and community
input revealed similar support for an enhanced active transportation network. Frequently-cited priorities included:
• Improving transit service to better serve suburb-to-suburb trips within Washington County;

• Developing comfortable and convenient walking and biking facilities that connect homes, businesses and
transit;

• Provision of pedestrian and bicycle facilities that provide greater separation from automobile traffic and
safer crossings of busy roads;

• Completing identified gaps in the pedestrian and bicycle networks;
• Expanding and improving the multi-use trail network in the county; and
• Making sure that bicycle facilities serve a variety of cyclist types - from young children to “strong and fear-
less” adults.

PART 3: TRANSPORTATION MODAL ELEMENTS 121
Effective November 27, 2015 • Updated December, 15 2016