25 MILLION FOREIGN NATIONALS IN THE USA:
HOW MANY WILL STAY?

SYNOPSIS:

    Immigration reform will establish pathways to American citizenship
for some of the citizens of other countries settled in the USA.
But no matter what new policies are established,
some foreign nationals will return to their homelands.
Such repatriation should be orderly and compassionate.

    How shall we deal with the demographic shifts
that will result from returning some families to their homelands?
And how will American society by changed
when millions of foreign nationals come out of the shadows?

OUTLINE:

1.  GRADUAL REPATRIATION OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS

2.  LITTLE AMERICANS WILL SPRING UP ALL OVER THE WORLD

3.  IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES

4.  THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF REPATRIATION FOR THE USA

5.  THE IMPACT ON FOREIGN NATIONALS
            CONSIDERING ENTERING THE USA WITHOUT PERMISSION

6.  BETTER BORDER ENFORCEMENT

7.  NATIONAL IDENTITY FILE WITH PICTURES
            OF ALL PERSONS WHO HAVE PERMISSION TO BE IN THE USA

8.  PATHWAYS TO CITIZENSHIP INSTEAD OF REPATRIATION

9.  PRIORITIZED REPATRIATION

10.  DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT ON OTHER COUNTRIES
            OF THESE RETURNING CITIZENS

11.  EDUCATED GUESSES ABOUT THE NUMBERS

RESULT:

   
Readers who begin this chapter with either
the hope of expelling all foreigners from the USA
or the hope of keeping them all
will see some middle way between these extremes.

    What principles should the United States use
for deciding which visitors can stay and which will return home?
Can we find some creative and positive solutions?



25 MILLION FOREIGN NATIONALS IN THE USA:
HOW MANY WILL STAY?


by James Leonard Park



    The population of the USA is now about 330 million people.
About 25 million of these are citizens of other countries:
13.3 million are Lawful Permanent Residents,
of which some 8 million are on pathways toward American citizenship.
11.7 million are settled in the United States without permission.
In addition, at any given time, there are about 2 million foreign nationals
who have temporary permission to be in the USA
on vacation visits, for education, employment, etc.

    This chapter will focus on the 10 million foreign nationals
now settled within the borders of the USA without legal authorization.
Under present law, the United States has the right
to repatriate all of these citizens to their home countries.
How many of these unauthorized foreigners
will ultimately return to their homelands?

    First we must register all foreign nationals
and record the specific facts about their families.
Then, new immigration regulations will be created
to separate those who will be offered pathways to U.S. citizenship
from those who will return to their homelands.




1.  GRADUAL REPATRIATION OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS


    Assuming that we will repatriate some foreign nationals,
we can consider how this will effect our American society.

    In the first phase of new immigration policy,
we should gradually identity and classify all foreigners in the USA.
Those who have permission are already registered with the government.
They have Green Cards issued by the Department of Homeland Security.
These cards bear their names, pictures, & other data.
Our next step should be to create a data-base for all of the other
citizens of other countries living within the USA without permission.

    Once the individuals and their families have been identified,
we can select the best destination for these foreign nationals
depending on the specific facts of each family group.

    Those who have been living in the USA for the longest time
have the deepest roots in American culture.
Many of these will be offered new pathways to U.S. citizenship.
As nation-wide registration becomes more complete,
some percentage of the citizens of other countries
will voluntarily return to their homelands.
And new immigration policy will decide which other foreign nationals
will be required to return to their homelands.
We should allow these individuals and families
reasonable time to wind-up their affairs in the USA
so that they can have an orderly move back to their homelands.

    If they have jobs, then their employers will be informed that
others will have to replace them when they depart for home.
For jobs that are difficult to fill, delays could be granted
so that the work of the company would not be disrupted.
The exact date of moving back home could be coordinated with
the date on which the replacement employee
will take over the job formerly held by a foreign national.

    If departing foreign nationals own businesses,
these businesses might have to be sold
to people who have a legal right to live in the USA.
If such businesses cannot be sold as operating companies,
then their assets might have to be liquidated
by being sold piece-meal to others who want those assets.
In some cases, the businesses will continue with foreign ownership.

    When any members of the families moving back to their homelands
are attending school in the USA,
the date of the repatriation could take into account the school calendar.
For example, perhaps the children would be permitted to complete
the current school year before they move back to their homeland.

    When foreign nationals own homes in the USA,
these homes might also have to be sold to new owners.
Sometimes this will cause a capital loss,
since the home might not sell for as much as it cost.
But that could happen to any homeowner required to sell immediately.
In some cases, it might be practical for the owners
to maintain their ownership of property in the USA
even after they have returned to their homelands.
Such homes could be leased to Americans or permanent residents.

    During the months of planning for repatriation,
the family can locate and purchase a new place to live in their homeland. 
If they are renters, they will find new places to rent in their home country.
Perhaps they will first live with relatives who stayed in their homelands.
Careful repatriation means helping families to put down deep roots
in the countries where they hold citizenship.

   
See more details about moving back to the original homeland:
Comprehensive Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families.




2.  LITTLE AMERICANS WILL SPRING UP ALL OVER THE WORLD


    Just as the USA now has enclaves of people with roots in other lands
Little Italy, Little China, Little Vietnam, Little Mexico
once this comprehensive repatriation begins,
it will not be surprising to see "Little Americas" emerging in other lands.
These will be communities of people who have lived in the USA.
And because they know the American way of life,
will they re-create some elements of their American experience
when they settle back into the countries where they are citizens?

    If there are large numbers of people returning to a particular country,
re-settlement services might emerge in that homeland,
providing housing and services to help the returning countrymen
to find new jobs, homes, & to make other social connections.

    Immigration discussions in the United States always notes
the wonderful things that immigrants have brought to the USA.
And American culture has been enriched by people born elsewhere.
If foreign nationals were successful within the American economy,
they can probably use the same knowledge and skills
to enrich the countries where they hold citizenship.
They might do more good in their homelands than they did in the USA.

    And when such immigrants have learned the American political system,
they might be less tolerant of forms of government
that do not work well in their home countries.
Such political knowledge and commitments
might have very positive effects on countries
that have political systems that are less democratic than the USA. 

    Repatriation need not necessarily be a negative move.
Many Americans voluntarily move to other countries each year.
And U.S. citizens can continue to be Americans if they please.

    The same holds for foreign nationals returning to their homelands:
They might have some American citizens in the family
for instance children born in the USA
who will continue to be American citizens
even tho the whole family must return to the parents' homeland.
And when these children are old enough to live on their own,
American citizens always have a right to return to the USA.




3.  IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE UNITED STATES


    When a significant portion of the U.S. work-force moves away,
this will make millions of jobs available for U.S. workers.
It will not solve all problems of unemployment.
But each year about one million people now looking for work
might to able to take over the jobs once held by foreign nationals
who have now returned to their homelands.

    This change will also take place over a period of years.
And some Americans who would never have thought of
working in a meat-packing plant,
in intensive-labor agriculture, in landscaping, & roofing
will find that these jobs suit them well.
Perhaps they will not earn as much as they were hoping for,
but at least they will be doing useful work
that does provide steady income

    And we should remember that some foreign nationals
also hold high-paid jobs in the USA.
They can apply their special skills in their home countries.
And people who have a legal right to live in the USA
can take over these well-compensated positions.

    When an employer knows that he or she
will be losing a specific employee as of a certain date,
the process of looking for replacements can begin immediately. 
And when foreign nationals are very difficult to replace,
they might be permitted to stay in the USA for a few more months
while replacements are located or trained to take over those jobs.

    Citizens of other countries who will be returned to their homelands
were consumers as well as producers in the USA.
Thus, the number of consumers in the USA might also be reduced.
Some products and services formerly sold to foreign nationals
will no longer be as needed within the USA.
But, of course, these repatriated citizens will become
new consumers and producers in their homelands.

    Employment is certain to be a factor in immigration reform.
New laws will determine which foreign nationals must return home.
And the numbers and time-frames for all such repatriations
will take into account the evolving employment situation in the USA.




4.  THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF REPATRIATION FOR THE USA


    Because these changes will unfold over a period of months and years,
most possible disruptions can be foreseen and dealt with appropriately.
If the repatriation takes place in large numbers,
everyone in the USA will begin to adjust to a slightly smaller population.
 
   All forms of permitted immigration will continue, of course.
In fact, we might decide to double the number of immigrants each year.
This would increase authorized immigration to about one million per year.
And the same standards for selecting new immigrants
might be applied to foreign nationals already settled in the USA,
which would give them new pathways to citizenship.


    If this route is chosen, some of the demographic shifts will be offset
by the new immigrants who were carefully selected to enter the USA.

    We might decide to keep the U.S. population about the same
by admitting as many new immigrants as we like
to replace the foreign nationals returning to their homelands.
Immigration policy might begin a population policy for the USA:
How many Americans do we want?
Should we increase or decrease our population?
Or should we keep the population increasing at its normal rate
by admitting new immigrants to replace those repatriated?




5.  THE IMPACT ON FOREIGN NATIONALS
            CONSIDERING ENTERING THE USA WITHOUT PERMISSION


    Once comprehensive repatriation begins and becomes widely known,
and once registration of all foreign nationals is more complete,
some citizens of other countries who were thinking of moving to the USA
even without permission will reconsider those plans.
They might personally know families who are being repatriated.
If friends and relatives are returning from the USA
because they were not permitted to become permanent residents,
this will discourage others who thought that
moving to the USA even without permission would improve their lives.

    Instead of planning to emigrate to the United States without permission,
they might improve their lives in their homelands.
And if they have a good chance of being accepted by the USA,
they can apply to emigrate while they continue to live at home.
If they make positive contributions to their home countries,
that will improve their chances of being accepted by America.
Some who apply for permission to move to the USA
will, in fact, be granted visas to emigrate.
For them, orderly emigration will be a pathway to a new life in the USA.
But most should plan to continue living in their home countries.

    Comprehensive repatriation will show that the United States
has found ways to enforce its immigration laws.
Foreigners will reconsider their plans for moving to the USA.




6.  BETTER BORDER ENFORCEMENT


    Comprehensive repatriation would not apply to foreign nationals
who are caught attempting to enter the United States without permission.
Since they have no homes or businesses in the USA,
there are no material goods to sell or transfer
before they are returned to the countries where they hold citizenship.

    The borders of the United States will be patrolled and protected.
When new methods of controlling the borders are invented,
they will be put into effect.

    And the fact that employers will not hire citizens of other countries
should remove one of the strongest motivations for economic migration.




7.  NATIONAL IDENTITY FILE WITH PICTURES OF ALL PERSONS
            WHO HAVE PERMISSION TO BE IN THE USA


    One new electronic development that will make our borders less porous
is the creation of a national Identify File for each resident of the USA.
The first feature of Directory USA
which will be widely available to all who have a need to see it
would be a recent picture of each citizen,
permanent resident, or registered visitor to the USA.

    A temporary File will also be created for each foreign national in the USA.
At present each person who is granted a visa to visit America
has his or her picture included in that application.
Likewise, each Lawful Permanent Resident has a Green Card
with his or her picture, name, and other identifying details.
And when foreigners living in the USA without permission are identified,
they will also have Files created for them in the National Identity Bureau.
This assumes that we will end the practice of automatic deportation
of citizens of other countries found in the USA without permission.
Temporary Files will be created even for unauthorized foreign nationals.

    The computer of the National Identity Bureau
will have a picture of every man, woman, & child living in the USA.
Other facts will be added as appropriate.

    This data-base can be used for immigration reform.
We cannot make wise policy if we do not know the demographic facts.

    All data in each File would be carefully protected
to prevent identity theft and other crimes related to false identity.

    Thus, instead of checking identity cards or other papers at the border,
the border control agents would check the picture in the national directory
to see if the person attempting to cross the border has such authorization.

    All forms of cards and papers can be falsified.
False documents for entering and residing in the United States
is already a multi-billion-dollar industry.
But a simple File of pictures would undercut all such false documents.

    Even where thousands of people cross the border each day,
the picture in each person's National Identity File
could be compared with their actual face quickly and easily.
And each time a registered person enters or departs from the USA,
an electronic record of that border-crossing
would be added to that individual's Identity File.
This will quickly reveal the fraud if several different people are crossing
pretending to be one individual in Directory USA.

    As soon as the National Identity Bureau is created,
everyone living in the USA without permission
will begin to consider the options open to them.
And people still living in other homelands
will re-consider any plans for moving
(without permission) to America.

    Even before the creation of a National Identity File for each person,
we can collect the pictures, names, & addresses
of all citizens of other countries living in the USA:

"Register all Foreign Nationals: Carrots & Sticks":
https://s3.amazonaws.com/aws-website-jamesleonardpark---freelibrary-3puxk/CY-REG.html




8.  PATHWAYS TO CITIZENSHIP INSTEAD OF REPATRIATION

    Since the USA is in charge of its own immigration policy,
we could create organized and rational pathways toward citizenship
for most of the foreign nationals now living within our borders.
We could apply the same standards and tests
now used for deciding which citizens of other countries
are permitted to emigrate to the United States.

    And the fact that they have already lived for some years in the USA
should be taken into account.
If they have received a standard education within the USA,
then they are probably as well equipped to become citizens
as the millions of people who were born in the USA
and who received a public education.

    New pathways toward citizenship will be reasonable.
We will have elaborate debate about each change
before it is passed by the U.S. Congress and signed by the President.

    This will be in striking contrast to the present fact of life:
Millions of people have come into the USA without any lawful process. 
They were not registered at the border.
Their presence in any location in America has been kept secret
for fear that they might be sent back to their home countries.

  If we register all people presently living in the USA,
this will discourage further unauthorized immigration from other countries.
Potential immigrants will know that they are likely to be discovered.
And if they have no valid reasons for remaining in the USA,
they will be returned to their homelands. 

    All options for immigration reform remain open.
Probably most settled foreigners will become American citizens.
And others will be returned to their original homelands.




9.  PRIORITIZED REPATRIATION
   
   
Once we create better records of just who is living in the USA,
we can begin organized and compassionate repatriation
following priorities established by law.

    Ineffective immigration controls have created the present problems.
When immigration reform is enacted in the United States,
arbitrary deportations for minor paper-work problems will end.
America will decide which foreign nationals already settled in the USA
will be permitted to stay as permanent residents.
And most permanent residents will be offered pathways to citizenship.

    However, it is almost certain that immigration reform will include
continuing to send some foreigners back to their homelands.

    Since it would be impractical and unjust to send every foreigner home,
how shall we set priorities for which foreign nationals to repatriate first?
And which should be permitted to live in the USA a few more years
while they apply for any new programs we create?

    Under former law and practice, top priority for repatriation went to
foreign nationals who committed crimes while living in the USA.
(Here we mean ordinary crimes, not immigration violations.)
All crimes are dealt with first by the local police.
The persons who commit crimes are arrested, taken into custody,
put temporarily into jail, and processed by the justice system.
Criminal laws apply to everyone
regardless of citizenship.

    When it is discovered that the person who committed the crime,
for which he or she was arrested, tried, convicted, & sentenced
is a citizen of another country,
where should the prison sentence be served?
Just putting the criminal across the border is not wise policy.
We should make certain that a particular foreign prison system
is willing and able to accept this specific convict
before making arrangements for repatriation.

    Should the convicted criminal be kept in an American prison
if the homeland cannot provide appropriate imprisonment?

    Besides the special handling required for convicted criminals,
care should be taken for each family and individual returning home.
Compassion means allowing foreign nationals time
to make new arrangements in their homelands:
Where will the family live?
What means of income will be possible?

 
   A new system of careful and compassionate repatriation is described here:
Comprehensive Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families.




10.  DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT ON OTHER COUNTRIES
            OF THESE RETURNING CITIZENS


    When we propose to send thousands of people
back to the countries where they hold citizenship,
we should take into account what this shift of population
will do to the countries of origin to which these citizens will be returned.
They will have plenty of time to think about such returning citizens
since it will take months or even years to put these practices into effect.

    Usually people left their native countries
because they could not make a good life for themselves at home.
And they hoped that they would have better chances in the USA,
even tho they knew they were emigrating without permission,
subject to being returned to their countries of citizenship
whenever they were discovered. 

    Some of the countries of origin are already overcrowded.
But the return of some additional thousands of citizens
might encourage those countries to consider their population policies.
Usually they have had no population policies at all.
When there were too many people in any given area,
they were expected to move to their cities or to the USA.

    But new policies will have to be created
so that the citizens of any country can live in peace and harmony
within the territory of that country. 

    Japan offers an example of millions of people living on limited land.
Everyone knows that there is no more land to make Japan larger.
So they have controlled their population
by the voluntary limitation of family size.
They do not have more children than they can raise.

    China offers a different kind of example.
China is mostly a rural country.
But they discovered several decades ago
that there would soon be far too many people
trying to live on the land mass of China.
So they put into place strict controls on the number of children
that each family can have: One.
This kept the population of China within manageable limits.
And this success has resulted in relaxing the limits on family size.

    China did not resort to sending its people to other countries
when there was not enough room at home.

    When the actual numbers are known,
then the countries where the foreign nationals hold citizenship
will be informed about the approximate numbers of their citizens
who will be returning each year.

    These returning citizens might not be a burden on their homelands.
Many returning citizens will have useful skills and knowledge.
They will make meaningful contributors to their homelands.

    Immigration reform in the United States will affect other countries.
But once we establish the new patterns of repatriation and immigration,
the other countries affected will take those facts into account.
What new world will emerge as we make immigration more reasonable?




11.  EDUCATED GUESSES ABOUT THE NUMBERS

   
Of the 10 million foreigners settled in the USA without authorization,
about half might be offered new pathways to U.S. citizenship.
It will be better for the USA and for these families
to allow these best candidates to become American citizens.
They can be allowed to stay here while they apply
for whatever new pathways to citizenship we create.

    In June 2012, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA):
Children who were brought into America without permission
while they were less than 16 years of age
were no longer subject to automatic deportation when discovered.
Such DREAMers were registered but not returned to their homelands.
They were given authorization to remain in the USA for two years at a time.
And if they committed no crimes, such work-authorization was renewed.
Was this the beginning of a more comprehensive program of
registration without deportation?

    Because the criteria for earned citizenship have not yet been set,
foreign nationals who hope to become new Americans
should prepare themselves in several common-sense ways:
register with the U.S. government as soon as this becomes possible,
keep working in legitimate employment, learn English, pursue education,
obey all laws, contribute to society, be creative, pay taxes, etc.

    Here are some further ideas for pursuing citizenship:

"Ideal Immigrants: Criteria for Selecting New Americans":
https://s3.amazonaws.com/aws-website-jamesleonardpark---freelibrary-3puxk/CY-IDEAL.html

"Earning American Citizenship: Be Above Average":
https://s3.amazonaws.com/aws-website-jamesleonardpark---freelibrary-3puxk/CY-EARN.html

    The best of the foreign nationals will be offered pathways to citizenship.
But some citizens of other countries will return to their homelands.
Before we make any final determination, we will probably create
a complete data-base of all foreign nationals settled in the USA.
Knowing the facts about these individuals and their families
will help the USA to decide exactly how to handle each specific situation.
Which foreign nationals should be permanently settled in the USA?
Which immigrants should be offered pathways to earned citizenship?
Which foreigners should be returned to their homelands?

     Whatever new pathways to U.S. citizenship we create,
some foreign nationals will not be able to qualify.

    When one member of the family have been convinced of a serious crime,
then the whole family might be repatriated to their homeland,
where the convinced criminal will serve his or her prison sentence.

    The first one million foreign nationals returning to their homelands
will also include many thousands who voluntarily go home.
They know that they have little or no chance of being accepted
as permanent resident of the USA or becoming U.S. citizens.
Better systems of work authorization will prevent them from working:
Jobs will be reserved for U.S. citizens and registered foreign nationals.
If they lose their jobs, they will silently return to their homelands
---just as they secretly entered the USA without authorization.
How many will return to their homelands
without any official record that they ever lived in the United States?

    After the first elements of new immigration policies become effective,
we will be able to make better guesses about the ultimate outcomes.
And we will be able to measure the impact of the first changes.
America will probably remain a welcoming nation,
but we will put limits on the number of new people admitted each year.
We will provide new pathways to citizenship
for several millions of the foreign nationals already settled in the USA.
But a similar number of foreign nationals
presently living in the USA will return to their homelands.




RESULT:

   
The debate about 'immigration reform'
has been dominated by two extremes
either we have completely open borders
allowing people to enter and leave as they please
or we seal all borders and deport all foreign nationals.

    This chapter has explored several possible ways
to deal with the present situation of having millions
of unauthorized foreign nationals already settled in the USA.
Let creative thinking begin.




These ideas about what should happen to foreign nationals already settled in the USA
has become Chapter 14 of Orderly Immigration: Creating a New America:
"25 Million Foreign Nationals in the USA: How Many Will Stay?"

Would you consider joining a Facebook Seminar
discussing this book-being-revised?

As a pre-publication reader,
you could help to improve this book.

See the complete description of this free book-club:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/aws-website-jamesleonardpark---freelibrary-3puxk/ED-IMM.html

The discussion of all of the issues surrounding immigration reform
takes place in a Facebook Group called:
"U.S. Immigration & Asylum Reform: Reasonable Middle Pathways":
https://www.facebook.com/groups/431865303561834




AUTHOR:

    James Park is himself an immigrant to the United States.
He was a child when his whole family was admitted to the USA.
So there was no way to know ahead of time what he might contribute.
But each family member has proven to be good for America.
Learn more on his personal website:
James Leonard Park
Free Library.

    This electronic library contain other essays about immigration:

I am an Immigrant

Immigration Problems and Solutions:
Keeping the Debate Constructive


Immigration Reform:
A Range of Options


Earning American Citizenship:
Be Above Average


Ideal Immigrants:
Criteria for Selecting New Americans


Children of Foreign Nationals:
New Pathways to Citizenship

Register all Foreign Nationals:
Carrots & Sticks


Registration without Deportation:
Bringing Millions of Foreign Nationals out of the Shadows

Creating New Pathways to American Citizenship

If They Cannot Work, They Will Not Come:
And Many Will Return to their Homelands


Born in the USA:
The Easy Way to Become a U.S. Citizen

Comprehensive Repatriation of Citizens of other Countries and their Families

National Identity File:
Directory USA




Created August 28, 2010; Revised 9-3-2010; 9-4-2010: 11-22-2010; 12-1-2010; 12-23-2010;
1-15-2011; 1-20-2011; 1-21-2011; 3-10-2011; 6-10-2011; 9-28-2011; 10-1-2011; 11-24-2011;
3-8-2012; 4-30-2012; 10-18-2012; 7-9-2013; 8-15-2013; 8-27-2013;
4-14-2014; 9-8-2014; 4-24-2015; 4-15-2016; 11-30-2016;
1-25-2017; 10-13-2017; 5-21-2019; 11-23-2020;



The Unitarian Universalist Association has an excellent website
exploring all aspects of the immigration issue:
http://www.uua.org/socialjustice/issues/immigration/index.shtml



A collection of UU sermons on immigration issues will be found here:

Immigration Reform.



Department of Homeland Security
immigration statistics.



Go to the beginning of this website

James Leonard Park—Free Library