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Just a visual reminder for anyone who has any confusion about what the fundamental driver of stock prices really is. There has been one notable exception to this fundamental relationship during all these years, which held between 7 May 1997 and 23 May 2003. The massive decline the stock market suffered at the height of the credit crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 is clearly visible in the upper right corner of the graph.
Once inflation is accounted for -- and make no mistake about it; inflation is a cost -- not only has the Dow not recovered its 2007 high, but it remains below levels established in 1999! As the chart shows, the 2000s were undoubtedly a tough decade for equity investors, but they were no "lost decade" -- even in real terms.


Fool contributor Alex Dumortier, CFA, has no position in any stocks mentioned; you can follow him on LinkedIn. Meanwhile, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite has done far worse in real terms since 2000; investors in the Dow Jones index, on the other hand, have managed to make a small profit. So for example an investor holding equities in the form an index fund mirroring the S&P 500 from March 2000 has had a negative return when inflation is included. These Criminals have already promised us (again and again) that this crime will never end – not until they are finished. The last time the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ all hit record highs, the markets went into free fall.
As the S&P 500 pulls within a few percentage points of its nominal all-time highs, despite macro-uncertainty and micro-delusion, perhaps (as UBS' Peter Lee notes) a longer-term perspective is warranted. Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Funny how 15+ trillion in emergency liquidity only gets you back to where we were at when the crisis officially began. A steady to mildy disinflationary environment (according to BS statville) does not flash commodity collapse, nope! McDonalds $3 value meal used to have a medium drink and medium fries, now its a small drink and small fry. My bread loaf is still $1.49 but it looks like a couple slices are missing, yep missing an oz. A lot of the size stuff I don't really care about because you really didn't need a plate that big for a meal anyway, but the cost I do care about. It can, and probably will go up forever, with the inflation (dollar depreciation) that is structured into our modern economy. Ineptocracy is a system of government in which the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves, or to succeed, are rewarded with the goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth and the diminishing number of producers. So the S&P should pull back because it's gone up for such a long period of time, this also means that gold is due to pullback as well? You can't 'choose' to be always bearish on one market and always bullish on the other by picking and choosing which data points to use. That decline was severe enough that it has taken the Dow nearly five and a half years to get back to its October 2007 high. This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above.
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The index has more than doubled from the lows reached in March 2009 at the peak of the global financial crisis. Since then, US inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has climbed by almost 40%.
However in general most investors do not pay much attention to analyze their returns accounting for adverse effects of inflation. For over 80 years, the S&P 500 (or its proxy) has cyclically reverted to it its logarithmic trend-line growth.
Although we may be due to revisit such an oversold condition, due to the calendar, there are many factors in play that are stretching the current overbought period.
The FED and its worlwide bankster CB buddies will flood and flush faster than you could pee and poo!
Thankfully, that isn't the end of the story, for capital gains aren't the only source of returns for equity investors. For the first time it crossed the 2,000 mark in August and earlier this month reached a new record of 2,019. Factoring that in transforms the previous record to 2,124, notes Epstein, and the market is still more than 5% below this milestone. The above chart brutally makes it clear that despite being the market for 15 years the investor did not even make a positive real return. To put it another way, the government has destroyed the purchasing power of the dollar by an astonishing 38% during this short-term time period.
The last time the market pulled away from this bullish up-trend was in 1982 (and the previous period of cyclical reversion took 32 years from 1942 to 1974) and suggests the S&P 500 could well revert to around an 850 level within the next year or so. What they didn't tell you is that they made every meal smaller, part of getting the calorie count lower for Obamacare. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. According to an article in UK-based MoneyWeek magazine S&P 500 has hit over 30 new record highs this year.
Perhaps Lee (the anti-thesis of JPM's Tom Lee) needs to read some Birinyi to really understand how to extrapolate?



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