An outcome-based analysis using surface population models and logistic regression analysis shows that significant inequalities exist between the middle and working classes, and also between the middle classes and the inactive (the unemployed and unclassifiable classes, not the retired), in risk factors associated with flood emergencies in all Environment Agency Regions of England and Wales except the Midlands region. 1.2 In the UK, the issue of environmental justice was slower to develop, but NGO activists such as the Friends of the Earth have long campaigned for environmental justice, especially in the location of polluting factories. 2.2 While it could be argued that both approaches to inequality analysis should be used in tandem to provide a complete picture of any underlying mechanisms of social inequality, this paper concentrates on the value of an initial outcome-based analysis to identify the structure of any inequalities amongst residents living within the flood plains of England and Wales.
3.3 In this paper, we are considering the extent of the vulnerability of place defined by the Environment Agency flood maps and just one of the characteristics (social class) of the 'at risk' or vulnerable populations, who may inhabit those risky places. 4.1 While much of the original activism and environmental justice research was concerned with proximity to human-induced hazards such as factories and waste-disposal sites, there has been growing evidence of unequal risk to populations exposed to natural hazards such as earthquake and flooding (Blaikie et al.
4.3 To explore different measures of inequality within the flood plains and to try to address the problem of aggregating deprivation profiles to large areas such as wards and SOAs, Fielding and Burningham (2005) employed a spatial method which re-distributed population characteristics, derived from the 1991 Census data, as population grids using Surface Builder, a freely-available program. 6.1 Areas 'at risk' were those defined by the Environment Agency as within the zone 2 flood plains (FPs).
7.3 Area statistics for social class were downloaded from the 2001 Census via CASWEB[1] from Table CAS044, NS-SEC of Household Reference Persons (HRP) aged 16-74 in England and Wales.
8.1 Within ArcView, the flood grids and the social class grids were introduced as separate layers and the map calculator was used to identify class grid squares (for each social grouping) which intersected with the flood grid squares (separately for zone 2, tidal and fluvial flood plains).
Data was then summarised to zones to aggregate the total numbers of households 'in zone 2' and 'at low risk' within each Environment Agency region in both the fluvial and tidal flood plains (see Figure 5). 9.1 In order to make area comparisons, the distribution of flood risk was explored by geographic region. 9.2 Table 2 shows that overall, ten percent of all households in England and Wales are 'at risk' from flooding. 9.3 Expressed as a percentage of the total flood risk, nearly a third of all households 'at risk' in England and Wales in the zone 2 flood plains are in the Thames Region, twice to four times the likelihood of anywhere else.
10.1 A statistical technique which can predict likelihood of being 'at risk' (defined as being within the zone 2 flood plains) is logistic regression. 10.2 Table 4 displays the logistic regression analysis results predicting the overall likelihood of being in the zone 2 flood plains of England and Wales, comparing the middle classes (the reference category) to both the working class and the inactive in model 1, and comparing all regions to the Thames Region (the reference category) in model 2 , and finally exploring the interaction between class and region in model 3. 10.3 Model 1 shows that the working class and inactive households (as measured by the class of the household reference person (HRP), usually the householder) are more likely to be in the zone2 flood plains than the middle class. 10.5 The second analysis, predicting presence in the fluvial flood plains, is seen in Table 5.
10.6 Model 1, using class to predict presence in the fluvial flood plains, shows that overall, the working class are more likely to be in the fluvial flood plains and the inactive less likely than the middle class. 10.7 Model 3 explores the likelihood of living within the fluvial FP, not only controlling for the main effects of class and region, but also controlling for the interaction between class and region. 10.8 Table 6 shows the logistic regression analysis predicting the likelihood of inequality within the tidal flood plains of England and Wales.
11.1 If all things were equal, then there would be no disproportionate distribution of social classes within the flood plains of England and Wales. 11.2 However, our results differ from Walkers' in finding that there is significant inequality overall between the middle classes and both the working classes and the inactive, even in the fluvial flood plains of England and Wales (except in the Midlands Region).
11.3 Research into the costs involved during a flood emergency is particularly important in highlighting the non-structural elements within the flood hazard management policy. 11.5 Another main point to make is that while inequalities exist in the flood plains this does not necessarily indicate that an injustice has occurred. ODPM (2002) Preparing for Floods: Interim guidance for improving flood resistance of domestic and small business properties, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London.
The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) has terminated its contract with Super Industrial Services Limited (SIS) for the construction of the $1 billion Beetham Water Recycling Plant.


THREE years after the fact, Parliament has only this month received the annual report of the Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission (TTEC) for 2013.
The battle for leadership of the UNC has ignited a discussion on leadership in a broader context, with the party’s founder, Basdeo Panday, weighing in on the issue. Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley made the statement at the new Chaconia Crescent development, Four Roads, Diego Martin, yesterday during his feature address at the distribution ceremony of 120 keys for units at Chaconia Crescent as well as for Greenvale Park in La Horquetta. Thirteen years after Umar Abdullah, leader of Waajihatul Islaamiyyah, also known as The Islamic Front, was sought by US and British Intelligence for supporting al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and jihad (holy war), he has admitted that he almost joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis) as a frontline fighter.
THE race for leadership of the United National Congress (UNC) yesterday turned into a three-way battle following a decision by former Trade and Industry Minister Vasant Bharath, to throw his hat into the ring and contest the post of political leader.
Vasant Bharath has been said by quite some people to be a good contender for leadership of the United National Congress, but there are questions far too serious that could make him a non-starter if he enters the party’s internal electoral race.
This analysis demonstrates overall inequality is reproduced in both the fluvial and tidal flood plains, although that within the tidal flood plains is especially significant and more pronounced in some areas, especially, in the Eastern regions of England. 2003) found no disproportionate distribution of the population in the lower (more deprived) deciles residing within the fluvial flood plain of England, although there did seem to be a relationship between more deprived ward populations and flood hazard in tidal flood plains. These spatially distributed, characterised, populations were then 'captured' and defined as 'at risk' if they resided within the extent of the Environment Agency indicative flood map. Logistic regression analysis was then used to estimate the likelihood of each social class being at flood risk, both overall and by Environment Agency region. Thus the sum of these areas 'at risk' exceeds their separate areas since some areas experience both fluvial and tidal flooding.
Thus the 'at risk' populations were identified by the coincidence of populated grid squares with flood grid squares. Then the sum of those within each class was 'captured' within and without the extent of the zone 2 flood plains. This compares well with the Environment Agency report of "Around 5 million people, in 2 million properties, living in flood risk areas in England and Wales"[4]. Thus to read these tables, the odds of being in the flood plains against not being in the flood plains is expressed as either (significantly) greater or lesser odds than that in the reference category. Model 2, with the addition of Environment Agency Region, shows that even controlling for region, there remains the same inequality between classes.
Such policy is now seen, certainly in Scotland, and to some extent in England and Wales, to be gradually moving away from the more historical, structural responses of building flood defences and land reclamation, towards more sustainable non-structural solutions (Penning-Rowsell and Wilson 2006, Werritty 2005). On the one hand, claims to objectivity may also be considered to be socially constructed: the flood maps used in this paper may make claims of scientific objectivity but be based on political boundaries and insurance company principles and viewpoints. In this context, the hazard, which may be natural (earthquake, flood) or human-induced (pollution, melt-down in a nuclear plant), is defined as a potentially damaging physical event which may lead to loss of life or disruption of social or economic life or environmental damage.
One useful way of thinking about vulnerability to flood is in terms of emic and etic approaches (Spiers 2000).
Using unit postcode centroids to estimate the proportion of the population within a ward that lies within the flood plain, they were able to relate total population figures to the rating of that ward within the index of deprivation (IMD 2000) (ODPM 2000). They found that this 'outsider' perspective of those 'at risk' found that overall, the lower social classes and the unemployed experienced a greater flood risk but no distinction was made between tidal and fluvial risk (Fielding & Burningham 2005). The research therefore firstly identifies the risk prone areas (the flood plains) and then seeks to classify the social class of those that live within those areas. The surface population grid map of those classified as semi-routine and routine is seen in Figure 3 (see Fielding and Burningham 2005 for a full description of this methodology). The map calculator was used to simply sum these figures for each social class within, and not within, risky areas (all zone 2, fluvial and tidal flood plains).
Firstly, social class was entered as the primary independent variable to explore inequality between classes and likelihood of flood risk.


Why the tidal flood plains seem to attract particular inequality would be a subject to explore, possibly approached by an analysis of the migration patterns of people into coastal areas, particularly upon retirement. It is generally recognised that the effects of climate change will only increase the flood risk and furthermore, this change in flood hazard management policy seeks to share responsibility with the communities and individuals at risk. And on the other hand, while those at flood risk may have differing perceptions of the significance and importance of such statistical information, that does not make their views any less "objective".
And second, I join the chorus of frustrated voices crying out for something to be done to curb the dangerous, deafening din of explosives and fireworks that have become intrinsic to festivals like Divali.
The second approach takes into account community formation and neighbourhood change in explaining environmental inequality and does not necessarily assume that the community is disproportionately affected because it is a minority community. Our analyses relate to households at risk from flooding, and therefore a household measure of social class is most appropriate.
Regional analysis was considered an important analytic strategy since the predicted increased flood risk due to climate change is also predicted to be differentially felt throughout the British Isles.
Conversely, we see that region, controlling for class, does have a big impact on the likelihood of living in the fluvial FP with those living in East Anglia and Wales being much more likely to be living in the fluvial flood plains than those living in the Thames area.
And although most of this research has been conducted in what may be considered more hazard-prone areas such as the cyclone belts in Australia and the USA and earthquake vulnerable areas of South America and Turkey, the recent floods in the UK (especially in Autumn 2000 and events such as the flooding of Boscastle in 2004 and Carlisle in early 2005) and growing concerns over global climate change, have highlighted the importance of more research even in regions with historically less dramatic natural events, such as the UK (EA 2001). This research uses flood zones 2 and 3, the extent of an extreme flood, to define those 'at risk' ie all those living within the solid black line on either side of the river (the thick line) in Figure 1.
Those in the NE, the NW, SW and Southern regions are less likely than those in the Thames region to be in the fluvial flood plains. However, objective measures such as these are often used to develop policies, target resources and direct flood warning campaigns.
Working class more likely; inactive less likely), that seen in Wales is significantly greater and consequently, both the working class and the inactive are more likely, compared to the middle classes, to be in the fluvial flood plains.
Walker et al (2006) further extended this work using the more recent Environment Agency 2004 flood maps, deprivation deciles derived from the IMD 2004 data (ODPM 2004a) aggregated to super output areas (SOAs) (population, approx 1,500), and the Ordnance Survey's Address-Point® to capture those addresses at risk within each SOA.
Elsewhere we have argued to engage local people, their views and perspectives in flood warning campaigns to develop strategies to raise local awareness of flood risk Burningham et al. The effect for East Anglia however, shows that while the inactive are significantly more likely to be in the fluvial flood plains than the corresponding class in the Thames region, the working classes, while still more likely to be in the fluvial flood plains, are not significantly more so than those in the Thames region.
This message is also evidenced by publications such as 'Learning to live with Rivers' (Institute of Civil Engineers 2001), 'Preparing for Floods' (ODPM 2002), and 'Making space for water' (Defra 2005).
A comprehensive summary of evidence on environmental justice in the UK, collected by the ESRC Global Environmental Change Programme and other academics and civic groups, has highlighted the need for further research in this area and also the importance for policy-makers to take into consideration social justice dimensions during the development of environmental policy (ESRC 2001). Indeed, there is evidence to suggest that many residents of floodplains within England and Wales fail to accept that they live in a flood-risk area (Burningham et al in press, Fielding et al 2007), a mistaken belief that all too often results in little or no suitable preparation for, or response to, an emergency and is of considerable concern to emergency managers.
This paper however, extends the previous research characterising those at flood risk from an etic, 'outsider's' viewpoint, not only differentiating between tidal and fluvial risk, but also using the 2001 Census and the latest Environment Agency flood maps (2004). Once again, they found that inequality existed within the tidal flood plains in all regions within England and Wales but no overall inequality within the fluvial flood plains although there was great regional variation in inequalities within the fluvial flood plains.
There is some evidence of this in the UK with the building of social housing on the flood plains (Mayo & Tickell 2006) against Environment Agency advice, clearly designed to attract the more deprived households.



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