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Author: admin | Category: Calculateur De Pret Auto | Date: 09.11.2015

Mortgage affordability and the ability to purchase a home has become a highly sensitive political issue in recent years. This Background Note provides a resource on housing interest rate movements and their impact on Australian mortgage holders. The Reserve Bank Board meets on the first Tuesday of every month (except January) to set a cash rate target.[3] This cash rate target is the desired rate of interest on overnight loans between banks.
Cash rate targeting is one aspect of the implementation of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).[4] The intention in shifting the cash rate upwards or downwards is to change possible future paths of price inflation.
The difference between actual inflation and expected inflation is an important aspect of understanding why rates change. The RBA view on the future of inflation and economic activity in Australia can be assessed within the quarterly Statements on Monetary Policy[8]. The cash rate is crucial to home loans and consumer credit because a change in the cash rate is typically transmitted directly and immediately to variable rate loans. The Reserve Bank Board has officially announced its cash rate target only since the beginning of 1990. Table 1 provides a history of the cash rate target, including the date of changes in the target and the relevant increment to the cash rate since the official target has been published. The last ten movements in the target, beginning in May 2002, have been upwards with each increment adding 0.25 percentage points to the cash rate. For home loans, the RBA collects data on Standard Variable Rate (SVR) and Basic Variable Rate (BVR) products. Chart 1 shows the historical path of the SVR home loan rate over 60 years from 1947 to 2007, and the BVR rate over the 13 years the RBA have differentially reported the data.
While the RBA provides longer term benchmark rate data, it is also instructive to know about the actual range of rates available to consumers in the market place. The key issue is that the interest rates published by the RBA may not necessarily reflect the range of rates available to Australian finance consumers. To understand the different rates available in the market there are two independent sources, Infochoice and Cannex.[15] These entities publish interest rate and package details for a wide range of product types.
As a consequence of the repricing of credit around the world, following on from the United States subprime crisis,[16] the Australian market has been experiencing interest rate increases outside of the RBA cash rate cycle. The RBA cash rate target has traditionally set the benchmark for wholesale mortgage rates in Australia.[17] In effect, consumer mortgage rates are generated as a premium over the cash rate, reflecting the effective borrowing rate between the RBA and major banks plus a risk margin for lending funds to consumers. More recently the mortgage market in Australia has matured with the emergence of non-bank lenders.
The effect of the short-term credit market is more keenly felt by some borrowers because the pricing of mortgage rates in this sector is affected not only by the RBA cash rate but also by the short-term credit market. Chart 2 demonstrates the movement in short-term credit pricing in 2007 by plotting the daily short-term Bank Accepted Bill (BAB) rates. The influences on short-term credit markets are not considered in this note, because they are complex and significantly more complicated when considering global factors. The key point from these data is that the cost of funding to lenders without lower cost depositors as a source of funding has increased substantially during the latter part of 2007. Various businesses have already adjusted rates to accommodate these changes.[19] Some major lenders have threatened shifting rates outside of the RBA cycle including NAB, Westpac and ANZ.
Changes in the cash rate affect a significant proportion of Australian mortgage payers because the majority of loans are variable rate, principal and interest term loans. Term loan: meaning that the principal borrowed is paid back in full over a specific time period (for example, 25 years). This section provides some estimated repayments on a range of mortgage levels at a range of interest rates. Table 2 includes a repayment schedule at the RBA standard variable rate prevailing after all rate adjustments since the 2004 election (held 9 October 2004). Note: Loan repayments are based on a 25 year term loan, assuming monthly repayments and interest accruals.
Note that repayments on any loan size can be imputed from this table by using the $1,000 repayment information. The periodic impact of rates rises, measuring the increased commitment as a result of a rate rise, is demonstrated in table 3.
REAM MORE A»Mortgage Rates Today, Current Mortgage Rates View & Compare Up to Date Bank Rates at Bankrate. I saw an interesting chart on Canstar which plotted the history of RBA Cash Rate, variable and 3-year fixed interest rates. I thought I would take it a step further and determine from past history if the 3-year fixed or variable rate would have been a better choice at a given time.

Given monthly data for the variable interest rate, to calculate which would have been the better choice I average thirty-six months of future variable rates. What can be observed is that the fixed rate is sometimes a better option (when under the three-years future average) and sometimes it is worse.
Finally, a difference of the two and it can be seen that it really jumps back and forth between good and bad. Out of 233 months, 121 months (or 52% of the time) the fixed had a worse off interest rate and 112 months (or 48% of the time) the fixed had a better interest rate. However, if we look at the 121 months from 2000 onwards, the variable interest rate is better off by an average interest rate of 0.23% which occurs about two-thirds of the time. In conclusion, 3-year fixed rates these days do seem to have a good chance of having a lower interest rate for the locked-in period. I still would avoid them though, fixed rates make it difficult to switch lenders due to the extra fees payable.
This entry was posted in Investment, Property and tagged 3-year fixed, cash rate, interest, RBA, variable by thydzik. And many baby boomers, who created a lot of their wealth by jumping into the residential market in the 1970’s and early 1980’s, are probably now encouraging their children to take the plunge because it worked well for them. With regard to whether interest rates are historically low, the red line on the chart below of the standard bank variable home mortgage rate since 1970 certainly supports that claim. But what borrowers should be concerned about is not the level of interest rates, but their relativity to the inflation rate.
The blue line in the chart above shows that inflation was historically high during the 1970’s and early 1980’s and actually exceeded the home loan interest rate through much of the 1970’s. The real or after-inflation interest rate is a much better guide than the actual rate as to whether interest rates are “cheap”.
It reveals that while real home loan interest rates are now much lower than they were during the 1990’s, they are nowhere near as “cheap” as they were in the 1970’s and early 1980’s.
To illustrate this, the table below looks at annual and total payments, in today’s dollars, on a $100,000, 25 year principal and interest loan under three real interest rate scenarios i.e.
Advice proffered by anybody who successfully entered the property market in the 1970’s and early 1980’s and is based on that experience should be ignored.
If you are going to borrow at today’s interest rates, don’t rely on a severe bout of inflation to help you manage your loan repayments.
Make sure your loan to valuation ratio is not excessive and that you can continue to handle your repayments, even if real interest rates again rise to 6-7% p.a. Receive monthly notification of new articles by signing up to our Smart Decisions blog now. Wealth Foundations is an independently owned personal financial advisory and wealth management firm. At the meeting the Board makes decisions about the level of interest rates, the cash rate[1], that it is targeting through the operations of monetary policy.
Indeed, the issue of indebtedness of Australian households, through credit cards, personal loans and mortgages, is now a regular topic of debate. This intention is driven by a policy established in August 1996, where the RBA was formally tasked with targeting an inflation rate of between two and three per cent. The rates that are actually paid on mortgages are determined in the competitive banking market.
To differentiate between these loan types, the SVR style of loan includes a range of features over and above a BVR style of loan, for which the consumer pays a higher rate of interest features such as branch access, greater account accessibility, offset facilities and redraw facilities. 20, Parliamentary Library, Canberra, 2003 04 and RBA Bulletin Statistical Tables (various editions). The RBA publishes a wider range of interest rate benchmarks for different sectors within the credit market.
These lenders typically access finance from sources other than retail deposit holders and use tools such as mortgage backed securities and securitisation, which effectively rely on selling large bundles of mortgages to investors. Rate setting in this market is determined entirely by market forces with bond sellers (lenders) taking a price set by the market. This chart shows that, for the early part of 2007, the RBA cash rate and the short-term rates were relatively similar, albeit with periodic fluctuations, until late in July. However, to get a sense for why Australian mortgage rates might move outside of the RBA interest rate cycle, it is instructive to look at the margin received from short-term interest rates compared with the RBA cash rate. It is also important to note that these margin shifts will affect borrowings in markets as diverse as home mortgages, small business overdrafts, leasing and personal or consumer credit markets (for example personal loans, credit cards and store cards).
Dates correspond to RBA increment dates, with 9 October 2004 being the only exception as the date of the last federal election.

For the average mortgage, the November 2007 RBA rate rise has added $42 per month to payment commitments. This data is all available on the Reserve Bank of Australia website, look for A2 and F2 statistics. I always believe that choosing a 3-year fixed interest rate was like gambling, it could either work in your favour or not, I am curious to see if I am right. Because it is constantly looking three-years into the future, it can be observed that the data finishes in February 2010. Pre 2000, the fixed was mostly a poor choice, post 2000 the fixed rate is lower most of the time. That combined with the advantage of having a non fluctuating interest rate makes it a good choice.
And the difference in actual cost of a home loan now and when many baby boomers were buying their first homes is massive. If the Board takes a decision to adjust the cash rate target the new target can lead to adjustments in variable rate credit facilities in Australia.
For example, they report on business lending, unsecured fixed loans and revolving credit facilities. The evolution of this type of product market has brought the impact of short-term credit higher in relevance to the mortgage holder. From July onward issues around defaults in the United States subprime mortgage market started to emerge, which began a repricing of credit around the world. Intuitively non-bank lenders would have either to absorb higher funding costs, or increase the costs to consumers who borrow from them, when a higher margin emerges on the cost of funds they face in the short-term market. The highlighted cells relate to the average loan size reported by the ABS on 7 November 2007[24]. In addition, to convert a monthly payment to a weekly payment, it is necessary first to multiply the monthly payment by 12 and then divide it by 52. With an increased home savings grant for first home buyers, it’s easy to believe that there will never be a better time for existing renters to stop paying “dead money” and buy their own home.
And even if it does, it is unlikely the Reserve Bank will allow real interest rates to go and remain negative for an extended period, as occurred in the 1970’s.
However, being historical in nature, the measures do not provide guidance on whether the future expected rate of inflation will be within the RBA target range. The most recent change was announced on 7 November 2007, during the federal election campaign. The impact of the crisis on rates in the Australian short-term market can be seen in the upward trending of all three BAB rates from around August 2007. Therefore if there are expectations of high future inflation, due to matters such as capacity constraints or potentially higher wages from a constrained labour market, then the RBA increases the cash rate target to reduce inflation generating economic activities, like consumer expenditure and borrowing. If this happens, it will give a major boost to the United States housing market and the economy at large thanks to motivated home buyers and borrowers seeking to refinance existing mortgages to a better rate.
However, according to the observations of economists at government-sponsored mortgage giant Freddie Mac, interest rates are likely to rise between now and the end of 2015.Why Mortgage Rates Are Likely to Increase in September According to the United States Economic and Housing Market Outlook published in April, low interest rates are likely to prevail through the spring and during the early summer.
In the weeks prior to September, mortgage interest rates may begin to climb gradually in anticipation of September, when the Federal Reserve Bank will more than likely increase the federal funds rate.It is important to understand that mortgage interest rates are influenced by various factors such as the yield of Treasury bills and the federal funds rate, which is related to the prime rate. The Federal Reserve sets the fed funds rate, which is the cost that major banks pay to borrow funds from the government; in turn, banks and mortgage lenders use this rate as guidance to price their home loans. The current low rates are prompting mortgage lenders to launch marketing campaigns to encourage their clients to refinance their existing loans. To this effect, banks may offer low closing costs as an enticement to refinance, but this situation may only last for a few months or until the majority of clients have refinanced their mortgages.In the end, it is important to remember that forecasts are predictions rather than facts. Mortgage rate projections are educated guesses at best; anything can happen between now and the next time the Federal Reserve convenes to discuss the federal funds rate.
She is a contributing writer to this and other blogs and also writes email newsletter articles, press releases and web content.
Prior to her writing career, Natalie worked in various fields including real estate, equipment leasing and banking.
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