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Author: admin | Category: Lease Car Calculator | Date: 27.10.2014

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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official recession arbiter, the US economy is currently at its fourth longest expansion in history.
Issuance of auto loans have been running at an annualized rate of USD80bn pushing up the share of auto loans to disposable income. As the consumer reaches a breaking point in terms of how much new credit that can be piled on top of legacy debt, even at rock bottom interest rates (NIRP anyone?), inventories of cars are growing faster than sales and auto assemblies seem to have peaked for now.
Looking at retail sales over a longer horizon we find that every time the yearly rate of growth fell below three per cent the US economy went into recession. Wholesale sales are in even worse shape with inventories still growing on a year on year basis while sales have contracted for the last 14 months. Total business sales have rolled over, falling for the last seven months and thus substantiate our argument of a materially weaker US economy. It is interesting to note that the US economy has never experienced more than eight months of month on month contractions over the last 12 months without entering a recession.
Factory orders, a leading indicator for industrial production suggest industrial production will remain weak for the foreseeable future. With falling sales, exports and imports, rising inventories and lower output it is no coincidence that corporate profits are falling. Per the above argument it’s safe to say large parts of the US economy is already in a recession, but one last piece of the puzzle remains to be solved. First of all, note that the establishment survey is model based and hence lagging in nature. In other words, if the US is in fact slowing down and heading into a recession it is highly likely that the current strong payroll data will be revised down.
US retail sector added almost 400k jobs last 12 months, which is strange given the fact that retail sales performed poorly throughout the year. We have also seen a decoupling of paid in withholding taxes on income and employment versus annual payroll growth.


As companies and household are under increasing stress a feedback loop starts to emerge in financial markets.
Later today (April 28 2016) the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release their advance estimate of first quarter GDP. To conclude our very chart heavy update we would like to point our readers to the time series that will eventually make the most bullish sell-side analyst throw in the towel; weekly initial jobless claims.
When this series break trend and move higher we know with full certainty the US is in a full blown recession.
Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Regarding Hillary, she will just be the next tool, a sledgehammer , that continues to pound the american people into debt slavery. She will seak to payout favors by getting all of us into WWIII while stealing real US productivity. ZeroHedge keeps telling me that everything is Obama's fault; so the day after he leaves office, everything will be sunshine and lollipops! You do realize, author, that a recession would be a substantial improvement compared to the depression the USSA has been in since 2008. Is a “credit score report” a hard inquiry?0I signed on as the co-signer on a car loan and somehow ended up being the primary name on the account3Multiple hard inquiry for a single loan from car dealer? By the sheer nature of a capitalistic society with its inherent cyclicality it is a safe bet that a new economic recession will hit in the not too distant future. According to latest Census Bureau data total retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in March following a slight contraction in both February and January. Debt funded consumption is not a viable long term growth strategy and as usual the American economy pulled future demand into the present by issuing ever more lax car loans.
However, due to increased efficiency enabled by more sophisticated computers and software the ratio has been structurally trending down for decades. The inventory to sales ratio need to trend adjustment to show what is glaringly obvious to us all – the US wholesale industry is in recession! Industrial production has been falling on a year-on-year basis for eight months now, and it is not just due the oil sector, but far more broad based. While this time series is more volatile (value based) we know that the US economy has never experienced the current level of export contraction without being in a recession. Historically falling profits are one of the best recession indicators we have with only one false signal since the 1950s. How come the labour market performs so well despite all the gloom and doom we witness in the overall economy?
These are fictional jobs based on the assumption that businesses are created every month and thus employs people that are not captured in the BLS estimates.
Financial stress indicators, such as the one provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, are at high and rising levels.


What is more - if you could have some sort of a guarantee that whatever government spends money WILL WORK - you don't have it. Also, I was advised not to pay off loan until 12 months and its no use to re-finance the loan for lower rate.
Yes a hard inquiry will give a sudden drop to your score, it should rebound within a couple of months (1 yr before it gets completely taken out of the calculations). We have argued since June last year that the next recession is imminent and we now feel increasingly confident that our prediction will come true before November’s Presidential Election.
In other words, retail sales fell over the entire first quarter as once surging motor vehicle sales (on back of lowered credit standards) reached its apex in Q4’2015.
In other words, we need to look at the difference from trend to get a complete understanding of current retail sales to retail inventories; levels are now on par with the worst of the GFC. Some would counter that this is mainly due to lower prices on refined oil products, which the US has become a net exporter in, but adjusted for this exports are actually contracting even more. In the fourth quarter of last year non-financial profits were down more than 14 per cent on the previous year, the second consecutive quarter of falling profits.
We looked at the unrevised payroll data going into previous recessions and we find that original data are always revised down after the recession fact. However, that could easily be tilted, in both directions, by changes in bloated inventory levels. Before I walked into the dealership, I had a preapproved loan from the only bank I applied. The dealer was making a guess at what other banks would offer based on your score, he is allowed to offer whatever rate he wants.
Despite this, we do not see pressure on employees to work more hours, nor do we see employers bidding up wages.
As the recessions gain momentum the trend becomes negative and subsequent revisions out of the recessions tend to be upwards, as we would expect from a lagging indicator.
However, as the chart below shows, new business entries have been declining since the late 1970s while business exits have remained stable. In 2013, the latest year with data, business entry and exit rates were more or less identical.
When inventory liquidation starts in earnest we will see materially lower growth and then suddenly contraction.



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