Philly’s current affordable housing stock is already not meeting the city’s needs. More than 40,000 families are on the Housing Authority waitlist, and if the limited supply of affordable housing decreases, that number could quickly grow.

By 2032, the map will look a lot different. Nearly 100 complexes will have lost their subsidies if they aren’t granted an extension, displacing thousands of low-income households.

While the impact of expiring subsidies may be felt throughout Philadelphia, certain neighborhoods are likely to be harder hit. Neighborhoods with lower median incomes and more Black and Latine residents face a higher risk of an affordable complex disappearing, and tend to have access to fewer alternatives.

Housing experts identified the neighborhoods immediately surrounding Temple as key areas experiencing the earlier stages of gentrification. There are currently a number of affordable housing complexes spread throughout North Philly, but that might not be the case in a decade.

As surrounding regions see an influx of affluent residents and Temple expands, these properties will become more and more valuable — which could push profit-motivated owners to sell or convert their buildings to market rate.

Two properties in particular have for-profit owners and house dozens of low-income families. The subsidy at Cecil B. Moore Village (30 units) is set to expire in 2028, and the subsidy for Model Cities #6 (70 units) is set to expire in 2024.

In 2018, the Department of Housing and Community Development published a Housing Action Plan, designed to create or preserve 100,000 affordable housing units over a 10-year period. So far, they’ve created or preserved 41,165 units of affordable housing.