13.09.2015

When the chances of getting pregnant is more

What to do if you want to get pregnant faster.There are only a few days each cycle where you can get pregnant following unprotected intercourse – this is known as the fertile window.
The Clearblue Advanced Fertility Monitor is the most advanced home method dedicated to helping you get pregnant naturally. It is designed to identify your full fertility window, typically up to 6 days each cycle – these are the days when you are most likely to become pregnant following unprotected sex. The graph above shows the estimated likelihood of conception on the day of ovulation and the 5 days before that – these are the High and Peak fertility days that Clearblue Advanced Fertility Monitor will aim to identify by tracking your natural fertility hormones. You can also test for pregnancy using the Monitor and the special Pregnancy Tests, from 3 days before your period is due – the Monitor will estimate when this is. In every cycle there are only a few days when a woman can conceive, so having sex on these days is very important if you are trying to get pregnant.
In a study of 87 women, 4 or more fertile days were identified in 80% of cycles using actual cycle length.
I found a couple of reasonably sciency links(George and Kamath, Socal Fertility) that suggest that the MFR is about 25% for a women aged 25, and 10% at age 35.
Given the MFR, the probability of getting pregnant after a given number of months can be calculated with a negative binomial distribution. So almost half of the (healthy) 25 year olds get pregnant in the first monthtwo months, and after two years (the point when doctors start considering you to have fertility problems) more than 90% of 35 year olds should conceive. Of course, from a male point of view, conception is an embarrassingly parallel problem: you can dramatically reduce the time to conceive a child by sleeping with lots of women at once. This is the argument I used with my husband to get him to start trying immediately (i was 36 at the time and i told him it would take at LEAST a year to get pregnant).
Add to this curve that male fertility shows a 21-23% annual decrease starting at the age of 39 and male fertility is believed to be falling at a rate of 2% every year due to environmental pollutants.
I really wanted to go to useR but since I’m now self employed, a return ticket to the USA + conference fees seemed a little bit frivolous while saving for a wedding and a potential baby. Yes, the model is way too simple compared to reality, but it’s good enough for a ballpark estimate.
You should take into account that woman get older during next attempts to become pregnant, so MFR will decrease. Yeah, I thought about that, then decided it was too difficult to model for a quick blog post. This analysis seems generally optimistic, especially because most of the age groups show a 100% of getting pregnant eventually.
Like I said in the text, health problems mean that you need to reduce the monthly fecundity rate.
Even if you don’t consider this extreme case where MFR=0, this uncertainty on the MFR clearly has a strong influence on the curve and on how to interpret it.
On your curve, with MFR=0.05, a woman has 85% chance to be pregnant after 3 years and 95% after 5 years.


I should perhaps have stressed more that this model is based upon women of average fertility for an age group.
Using this (simple, dumb) model if a woman’s MFR is greater than zero, the chance of conception will eventually converge on 100%. Feel free to come up with a more sophisticated model that takes into account health (or any other) factors. Another confusing issue is how to handle subjects who become pregnant multiple times in the data. My point is that your model is very far away from reality (the real curves would not look at all like that, it would be way flatter after one year) because you take MCR as an input, whereas your only input is the age, from which you make an initial estimation of MCR. The first month, your estimate your MCR from the only information you have: the age, which is what you did. Yeah, the graph was drawn as though you start trying around ovulation time, so the first month is month zero. The woman wears an under-arm sensor that logs physiology (temperature, heat-flow, movement) from which we can extract models of various fertility related hormones (particularly progesterone). An MFR of 0.25 means that one quarter of 25-year olds will get pregnant in the first month. On a more practical note, my wife got pregnant within two cycles of starting to use an electronic ovulation tester. The situation is grimmer than this, because of fetal loss, which, I think, increases with the age of the mother. This fertile window is very individual and it is normal for these days to be different each month. The hand-held monitor, with its easy to use touch screen, works with simple urine test sticks that accurately detect 2 key fertility hormones – luteinising hormone (LH) and estrogen (E3G). That’s more days than a standard ovulation test will identify, so you have more opportunities to get pregnant each cycle. The Clearblue Digital Ovulation Test with Dual Hormone Indicator is the first and ONLY test that typically identifies 4 or more fertile days each cycle.
By identifying more fertile days before ovulation than any with other ovulation test, you have more opportunities to get pregnant and can plan ahead to spend quality time with your partner.
It's the only ovulation test to accurately track not only luteinising hormone, but also estrogen to identify your wider fertility window. With its unique algorithm, the test adapts to your personal hormone profile, so you are less likely to miss your fertile days. If you have ovulation test sticks left after detecting your first LH surge then you can use them with the same test holder to identify your fertile days next cycle, if you're not already pregnant.
The Clearblue Digital Ovulation Test helps you maximise your chances of conceiving naturally by identifying your 2 most fertile days each cycle by measuring the changes in level of a key fertility hormone – luteinising hormone (LH). By pinpointing your 2 best days to get pregnant you can be more confident you are trying at the right time.


Not doubting you, just curious to read more about it [child health researcher of prime reproductive age].
In the case of extreme infertility problems (for example, you’ve had a hysterectomy and thus have no womb), the MFR is zero, and the chance is getting pregnant is zero over any time period. As someone working in the field, it’s great to see emphasis on the statistics behind conception rather than the usual bland stats or scare tactics. Some constant fraction of the population who are trying to conceive are sterile, so you can make a vastly more accurate model by assuming that you start with e.g. And then there’s the fact that fecundity rate changes, not least because baby-making intercourse becomes a real drag, so happens less over time. DuoFertility is basically a big data collection and numbercrunching exercise, with the aim of understanding fertility for various population segments and the specific case for each individual woman. We then combine this with other user-entered data (medical history, self-exams, home test kits) from both her and all the other women in the database, and generate predictions for future fertility as well as flagging up a range of other issues. The key to maximising your chances of getting pregnant each menstrual cycle is to be able to accurately identify your personal fertile days, so you know the best days to try for a baby. This means you can predict your best days to get pregnant in advance, so you can plan ahead and have sex at the right time – you will be maximising your chances of conceiving naturally. It is also the only Monitor that enables you to test for pregnancy, up to 3 days before your period is due, to see if you have been successful in getting pregnant this cycle.
It tracks 2 key fertility hormones to identify your High AND Peak fertility days, so you can plan ahead and have more opportunities to get pregnant. The clear digital display gives you a Clearblue smiley face when it identifies your best days to get pregnant so you know your body is ready. It's more accurate than calendar and temperature methods* and gives you unmistakably clear results on a digital display. So you have to take into account that there is a probability that your MFR is 0 (not necessarily with medical evidence). Because if it did not work during 3 years, it could be just bad luck, but most likely the MFR is lower than the expected one knowing only the age.
This suggests that by 12 months, 90% of those who will ever get pregnant naturally, already have. However, it becomes possible to statistically assign couples to one of these groups based on time trying and a little bit of medical history, and then provide a much more realistic assessment of the chances of natural pregnancy. Much of the back-end number-crunching is done in R, though we also do a lot of Java and C (and even some number-crunching in assembly on the sensor itself to maximise sensor lifetime).



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