19.06.2014

## Realistic chances of pregnancy at 50

Given the MFR, the probability of getting pregnant after a given number of months can be calculated with a negative binomial distribution. So almost half of the (healthy) 25 year olds get pregnant in the first monthtwo months, and after two years (the point when doctors start considering you to have fertility problems) more than 90% of 35 year olds should conceive. This is the argument I used with my husband to get him to start trying immediately (i was 36 at the time and i told him it would take at LEAST a year to get pregnant). You should take into account that woman get older during next attempts to become pregnant, so MFR will decrease. This analysis seems generally optimistic, especially because most of the age groups show a 100% of getting pregnant eventually.
On your curve, with MFR=0.05, a woman has 85% chance to be pregnant after 3 years and 95% after 5 years.
Using this (simple, dumb) model if a woman’s MFR is greater than zero, the chance of conception will eventually converge on 100%.
Another confusing issue is how to handle subjects who become pregnant multiple times in the data. An MFR of 0.25 means that one quarter of 25-year olds will get pregnant in the first month.
On a more practical note, my wife got pregnant within two cycles of starting to use an electronic ovulation tester.
And yes, there are several different ways to get pregnant with some advanced technology these days, from IVF to surrogacy options.

Pregnancy is something that happens when you might least expect it (been there) or eludes others completely.
Studies have tried to measure what the "real" odds are of an average couple with no fertility problems who have sex within the correct window of a woman's fertile period (usually 1 to 2 days before she ovulates, which varies for each woman, but usually occurs around day 14 of a 28-day cycle) and found that the odds of getting pregnant are lower than you may think.
There is no single cause of infertility in endometriosis but rather several factors that decrease the chances for conception. There is no question that chances for pregnancy in endometriosis are significantly decreased. When pregnancies with cryopreserved embryos were considered and when couples with a significant male-factor were excluded, both cycle and cumulative fecundity rates were higher. Since 2004, our IVF pregnancy rates in women with endometriosis younger than 35 are upwards of 50%.
Women with rapidly progressing endometriosis who are not in position to begin their families may benefit from cryopreservation of eggs for future fertilization and pregnancy. This approach offers women with endometriosis, career women who wish to delay childbirth, couples troubled by freezing embryos, and for those facing treatments that will affect their fertility a chance for cryopreservation and storage of their eggs until they are ready to start a family. In the case of extreme infertility problems (for example, you’ve had a hysterectomy and thus have no womb), the MFR is zero, and the chance is getting pregnant is zero over any time period. For instance, one study found that a couple having sex at the highest probable time for conception (2 days before ovulation occurred) had only a 1 in 20 chance of getting pregnant. Women with Stage I or II endometriosis have an approximately 2% chance for conceiving in any given menstrual cycle (cycle fecundity rate).

This suggests that by 12 months, 90% of those who will ever get pregnant naturally, already have.
However, it becomes possible to statistically assign couples to one of these groups based on time trying and a little bit of medical history, and then provide a much more realistic assessment of the chances of natural pregnancy. When you look at reproduction this way, it seems like a gosh darn miracle anyone ever gets pregnant. There was a plateau effect after five cycles and there were no pregnancies during the sixth cycle. This offers women with endometriosis a chance for cryopreservation and storage of their eggs until they are ready to start a family. And when you realize all that goes into making a pregnancy happen, from the book, From Conception to Birth: A Life Unfolds by Alexander Tsiaras, those numbers aren't really surprising. In the end, of the hundreds of millions of sperm that are released during sex, less than 500 reach the egg, and less than a literal handful break the outer shell of that egg to have a chance at fertilization.

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