18.01.2015

## Pregnancy conception how long

Given the MFR, the probability of getting pregnant after a given number of months can be calculated with a negative binomial distribution. So almost half of the (healthy) 25 year olds get pregnant in the first monthtwo months, and after two years (the point when doctors start considering you to have fertility problems) more than 90% of 35 year olds should conceive.
Of course, from a male point of view, conception is an embarrassingly parallel problem: you can dramatically reduce the time to conceive a child by sleeping with lots of women at once.
This is the argument I used with my husband to get him to start trying immediately (i was 36 at the time and i told him it would take at LEAST a year to get pregnant). You should take into account that woman get older during next attempts to become pregnant, so MFR will decrease. This analysis seems generally optimistic, especially because most of the age groups show a 100% of getting pregnant eventually.

Even if you don’t consider this extreme case where MFR=0, this uncertainty on the MFR clearly has a strong influence on the curve and on how to interpret it. On your curve, with MFR=0.05, a woman has 85% chance to be pregnant after 3 years and 95% after 5 years. Using this (simple, dumb) model if a woman’s MFR is greater than zero, the chance of conception will eventually converge on 100%. Another confusing issue is how to handle subjects who become pregnant multiple times in the data. An MFR of 0.25 means that one quarter of 25-year olds will get pregnant in the first month.
On a more practical note, my wife got pregnant within two cycles of starting to use an electronic ovulation tester.

In the case of extreme infertility problems (for example, you’ve had a hysterectomy and thus have no womb), the MFR is zero, and the chance is getting pregnant is zero over any time period.
As someone working in the field, it’s great to see emphasis on the statistics behind conception rather than the usual bland stats or scare tactics. This suggests that by 12 months, 90% of those who will ever get pregnant naturally, already have.
However, it becomes possible to statistically assign couples to one of these groups based on time trying and a little bit of medical history, and then provide a much more realistic assessment of the chances of natural pregnancy.

### Comments to «Pregnancy conception how long»

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