07.01.2014

Chances of getting pregnant each time

In terms of your chances of getting pregnant on day 19 of your cycle, it depends on when you ovulated. As this information relates to the Standard Days Method, if your cycles are in the 26-32 day range then your changes of getting pregnant from intercourse on day 19 are less than 5%. That said, if you wish to avoid pregnancy, it is encouraged that you avoid unprotected intercourse on days 8 through 19!
It's one of those things that makes sense if you stop and think about it, but a series of interactive charts by Gregor Aisch and Bill Marsh in last weekend's New York Times really helps put it in perspective.
Typical use: This is the norm, reflecting the effectiveness of each method for the average couple who do not always use it correctly or consistently.
Perfect use: A measure of the technical effectiveness of each method, but only when used exactly as specified and consistently followed. Assuming typical male condom use by a heterosexual couple, the number of women projected to experience an unplanned pregnancy over a period of ten years is about 86 out of 100. For male condoms used on a ten-year timeline, the difference between pregnancy rates during perfect use (18%) and typical use (86%) is almost 70%.


Used correctly and consistently, these contraceptive methods are projected to result in an unplanned pregnancy in just 3% of women over a ten year period. Over the same time period, that's lower than the projected rate of unplanned pregnancy in women who have been sterilized. You can see a chart on this page which shows your chances for getting pregnant relative to the day you ovulate.
The prescription will run out on your birth control and you'll miss a couple of days, lowering your body's guard against unwanted pregnancy. Few couples, if any, achieve flawless contraceptive use, especially over long time periods. We forget, misremember, and misuse, and so we see a projected rate of pregnancy (again, over 10 years) of not 3%, but 61%. Probabilities of pregnancy for most of the reviewed contraceptive methods were estimated based on data collected in the 1995 and 2002 National Surveys of Family Growth (NSFG), a nationally representative sample of users. These numbers can't tell you with any certainty what your likelihood of an unwanted pregnancy is, because the only person who can say how consistent you are with your chosen method of birth control is you.


Pregnancy rates based on the NSFG alone would tend to be too low because induced abortions (and contraceptive failures leading to induced abortions) are underreported but would tend to be too high because contraceptive failures leading to live births are overreported. Unintended pregnancy rates of other methods were based on surveys and clinical investigations. The reason is that the least adherent users become pregnant, leaving behind a group that over time is less and less likely to fail. There are other fertility awareness methods that can be used by a woman with shorter, longer, or irregular cycles though and which will help you to determine when you are fertile each month.
We can tell you that if you have sex and then ovulate 4 days later, your chances of getting pregnant are about 10-15%.
The graph at the top of this page outlines probability of getting pregnant based on when you had intercourse relative to when you ovulated.




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