02.10.2014

## Chances of getting pregnant at 38 years old

So while it's harder for older women to get pregnant, and the chance of a chromosomally abnormal child increases, these problems do not increase as sharply as we fear - except perhaps for those trying IVF or artificial insemination."Those statistics are more discouraging for older women," explains Twenge. Sarah Briggs, a former senior manager for Watford Council and British Waterways, who is married to David, a 38-year-old accountant, and lives near Carlisle, Cumbria, says she’s had no problem at all getting pregnant in her 40s.
Given the MFR, the probability of getting pregnant after a given number of months can be calculated with a negative binomial distribution.
So almost half of the (healthy) 25 year olds get pregnant in the first monthtwo months, and after two years (the point when doctors start considering you to have fertility problems) more than 90% of 35 year olds should conceive.
This is the argument I used with my husband to get him to start trying immediately (i was 36 at the time and i told him it would take at LEAST a year to get pregnant).
Add to this curve that male fertility shows a 21-23% annual decrease starting at the age of 39 and male fertility is believed to be falling at a rate of 2% every year due to environmental pollutants. You should take into account that woman get older during next attempts to become pregnant, so MFR will decrease.
Yeah, I thought about that, then decided it was too difficult to model for a quick blog post. This analysis seems generally optimistic, especially because most of the age groups show a 100% of getting pregnant eventually.
On your curve, with MFR=0.05, a woman has 85% chance to be pregnant after 3 years and 95% after 5 years. Using this (simple, dumb) model if a woman’s MFR is greater than zero, the chance of conception will eventually converge on 100%.
Another confusing issue is how to handle subjects who become pregnant multiple times in the data. My point is that your model is very far away from reality (the real curves would not look at all like that, it would be way flatter after one year) because you take MCR as an input, whereas your only input is the age, from which you make an initial estimation of MCR. Yeah, the graph was drawn as though you start trying around ovulation time, so the first month is month zero. An MFR of 0.25 means that one quarter of 25-year olds will get pregnant in the first month.

On a more practical note, my wife got pregnant within two cycles of starting to use an electronic ovulation tester. How long it might take and how age affects fertilityIf you don’t get pregnant straight away, it doesn’t mean you have a problem.
Only a third of couples will conceive in the first month of trying and if you’re under 35 and in good health it’s perfectly natural for it to take up to a year. The reason the advice above varies by age, is that your age is a key factor in likelihood to get pregnant. After 35 years old, egg depletion is at a critical level and after 40 years old the chances of achieving pregnancy are very much lower.
According to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority, about 95% of women aged 35 who have regular unprotected sexual intercourse will get pregnant after three years of trying, but for women aged 38, only 75% will do so. They put together all these church birth records and then came up with these statistics about how likely it was [someone would] get pregnant after certain ages." These are women who had no access to modern healthcare, nutrition or even electricity. But as we know from some notable celebrity cases, it is not impossible to get pregnant in the early or indeed late 40s," says James.And, he adds, there is evidence that female fertility is improving. It's possible that this has been overstated too, in James's view.The chance of any chromosomal abnormality at the age of 20 is one in 500, he says.
Two years ago a major study from the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists warned that women aged 35 were six times more likely to have problems conceiving than those ten years younger. Baby Rhiannon is now 14 months old and Jessica says they would like to try for more children in the next year or so, but will be more laidback.‘I don’t think I would have too much problem conceiving again because I don’t drink or smoke and I’m very healthy,’ she says. In the case of extreme infertility problems (for example, you’ve had a hysterectomy and thus have no womb), the MFR is zero, and the chance is getting pregnant is zero over any time period.
Clearly, to be interpreted in an intuitive way for a single woman, it does not work, it should be much flatter after 3 years (sorry for that…).
So if you have been trying to get pregnant for longer than a year, it is recommended that you seek medical opinion.
The most widely cited is a paper by David Dunson published in 2004, which found that 82% of women aged between 35 and 39 fell pregnant within a year.

They may not even have had intercourse."There's no doubt that intercourse becomes less frequent the older the couple are," James says. The latest update of the Nice guideline on fertility recognises that "the chances of women naturally conceiving at the age of 40 are much higher now than they were when the original guideline was written [in 2004]," James says. It followed 2004 research that suggested of those having sex twice a week, 82 per cent of 35 to 39-year-olds conceived within a year - just 4 per cent fewer than those aged 27 to 34. Because if it did not work during 3 years, it could be just bad luck, but most likely the MFR is lower than the expected one knowing only the age. This suggests that by 12 months, 90% of those who will ever get pregnant naturally, already have.
However, it becomes possible to statistically assign couples to one of these groups based on time trying and a little bit of medical history, and then provide a much more realistic assessment of the chances of natural pregnancy.
That's significantly better than the two-thirds chance drawn from the 300-year-old birth records. Her youngest child, Edward, was conceived when she was 48; all her pregnancies were natural, without any fertility treatment. A lot of the couples were over 35 and had been trying to get pregnant for ten years.’Ultimately, she thinks it’s unhelpful for doctors to put pressure on women to have their children younger.
Among women aged 27-34, the study showed that 86% will have conceived within a year of trying. Claudia, originally from Yorkshire but now based in Spain with her husband Javier, 30, says each time she conceived naturally and extremely quickly, with textbook pregnancies.She feels so strongly that older women face an unwarranted barrage of negativity if they want to try for families that she wrote Right Time Baby, a guide to later motherhood. While she’d hoped to have children by the time she was in her 30s, her then fiance broke up with her, primarily because he didn’t want children.She was then single for seven years until she met Matthew, 33, in 2009.

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