{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load staticfiles otree_tags %} {% load staticfiles %} {% load otree static otree_tools %} {% block title %} What is the probability that Illustra is well-managed? First answer. {% endblock %} {% block content %} {% tracking_time %} {% tracking_focus %} {{ form.thresholdq_choice1.errors }}

Remember that the computer randomly chose the quality of Illustra’s management to be either good or bad. If it’s well managed, every unique event that happened to Illustra was positive with probability {{ news_bias }}% and negative with probability {{ opposite_news_bias }}%; if it’s poorly managed, every unique event that happened to Illustra was positive with probability {{ opposite_news_bias }}% and negative with probability {{ news_bias }}%. {{ belief_instruction_example_positivity }}

Now that you have seen some news, how likely do you think it is that Illustra is well-managed?

Earnings
You will answer this question 4 times in our study. To give you incentives to answer exactly what you believe, one of them will be randomly chosen and paid according to the following scheme.
Don’t worry about the math: to maximize your earnings, you should enter your best guess of the probability that Illustra is well-managed given the news that you have seen.
The computer will draw a number, P, randomly between 0 and 100 (uniformly). If P is below your selected answer, you will get ${{ business_prospect_bonus }} if Illustra is well managed and ${{ business_prospect_loss }} otherwise. But if P is above your selected answer, you will enter a lottery with winning odds P: you will receive ${{ business_prospect_bonus }} with probability P and ${{ business_prospect_loss }} otherwise.



There is a % chance that Illustra is well-managed:



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