{{ block title }}How You Will Be Paid{{ endblock }} {{ block content }}
You will be paid a base of $6 plus the chance to earn an $8 bonus based on your performance. Payment will be determined by a lottery based on your confidence rating out of 100%. The payoff scheme is designed so that you should give your honest guess of the odds there are more Red than Blue pixels.
For example: if you believe without a doubt that there are more Red pixels, you should give a rating of 100%. If you think Blue is for sure the majority, you should give a rating of 0%. If you have absolutely no opinion, you should give a rating of 50%.
| If actual majority is… | Your win probability |
|---|---|
| Red | p = 1 − (1−r)² |
| Blue | p = 1 − r² |
Say you think there is an 80% chance the majority is red. r = 0.8.
If Red is the majority, the odds you will get paid p = 1 − (1−r)² = 1 − (1−0.8)² = 96% chance.
If it is not the majority, the odds you will get paid p = 1 − r² = 1 − 0.8² = 36% chance.
So, if you really believe it is 80% likely to be red, your expected payout
is .8×96% + .2×36% = 84% chance of getting the bonus.
You will be paid based on one initial guess and one final guess, chosen at random, from EACH block.
This means there are 16 total random responses that will factor into your bonus payment, with a maximum of $8.
**ANY of your guesses COULD matter!**
You can play with the slider below to better understand how the payoff scheme works.
The percentage values of winning the bonus for if Red or Blue are the majority are given underneath.