{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block title %} Algorithm Support {% endblock %} {% block content %} An algorithm has determined a demand forecast for the {{ total_number_products }} products. The algorithm applies artificial intelligence: it is a neural network that imitates the human brain. It uses elements called neurons to process information, analyze complex problems, and make decisions.

Our neural network consists of an input layer and an output layer:

The basic structure of a Neural Network

The input layer is the demand history. Each demand in the demand history is one input node. Moreover, the algorithm contains a bias node. The result of the output layer is the demand forecast for period 11.

The algorithm calculates the demand forecast for period 11 for a product by executing the following steps:

  1. It normalizes the demands of the demand history to values between 0 and 1:
    \[\text{demand period }t_{norm} = \frac{\text{demand period }t - \text{demand}_{min}}{\text{demand}_{max} - \text{demand}_{min}}\]
    \(\text{demand}_{min}\) and \(\text{demand}_{max}\) are the minimum and maximum demand values observed so far.

  2. It multiplies the normalized demands and the bias unit with the weights \(w_1,…,w_{10},w_{bias}\):
    \[\text{weighted demand period }t_{norm} = \text{demand period }t_{norm} \cdot w_t\]
  3. It sums up all weighted demands and the weighted bias node:
    \[\text{demand forecast period }11_{norm} = \text{weighted demand period }1_{norm} + ... + \text{weighted demand period }10_{norm} + \text{weighted bias node}_{norm}\]
  4. It transforms the normalized values back to real values:
    \[\text{demand forecast period }11 = \text{demand forecast period }11_{norm} \cdot {(\text{demand}_{max} - \text{demand}_{min})} + \text{demand}_{min}\]
To compute a forecast for period 11, the weights \(w_1,…,w_{10},w_{bias}\) are required. The algorithm has been trained with 100,000 structurally similar demand histories to determine appropriate weights.

Example



The following table displays the results of steps 1 to 4 of the algorithm: the demands, normed demands, weights and weighted normed demands for the demand history (periods 1 to 10). Finally, the normed demand forecast for period 11 is transferred back to real values.
Having been trained with 100,000 structurally similar demand histories, the neural network suggests a demand forecast of 500 units for Period 11.

{{ nn_table }}


In the following, you will see the {{ total_number_products }} products again. You will see your initial forecast and the forecast of the algorithm. If you wish, you can update your final forecast for the product.

Your bonus reward will only depend on the final forecast.


Please tell us what you think about the algorithm:
{{ questionnaire_1 }}



Please answer all questions to continue.

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