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The optimal guess

Using the laws of probability, the computer computes a statistically correct statement of the probability that bag A was drawn, based on all the information available to you. This optimal guess does not rely on information that you do not have. It is just the best possible (this means: payoff-maximizing) estimate given the available information. In technical terms, this guess is based on a statistical rule called Bayes' Law.


Your certainty about your guess

In any given task, you may actually be uncertain about whether your probability guess corresponds to the optimal guess. On decision screen 2, we will ask you to select a button to indicate how certain you are that your answer is within ± 1% of the correct value.

Example

Suppose that you stated a guess of 80%. Your screen would then look like this:

How certain are you that the optimal guess is within ± 1% of the statistically correct value of the probability?
{% for x, i in radio_amounts %} {% endif %} {% endfor %}

{% if x != 1 %}
{% else %}
very uncertain
completely certain



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