This round is for you to try. It does not count for your bonus payment!
In this example task:
Number of "more Red" cards: 7
Number of "more Blue" cards: 3
The "more Red" bag contains 60 red balls and 40 blue balls.
The "more Blue" bag contains 40 redballs and 60 blue balls.
Next:
The computer randomly selected one bag by drawing a card from the deck.
Then, the computer randomly drew 5 balls from the secretly selected bag, replacing each ball with a ball of the same color after it was drawn: In total, the computer drew 4 red
balls
and 1 blue ball.
Your task is to guess which bag was selected in this task.
Please first answer these questions:
How difficult do you find this specific guessing task{% if previous_dr.0 > 0 %}, following {{previous_dr.0 | add:1}} rounds of draws{%endif%}?
1 = not difficult at all
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 = extremely difficult
What is the highest amount that you are willing to pay to replace your guess with the optimal guess in this example?
$0
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
Your guess:
Select a probability (between 0 and 100) that expresses how confident you are that the "more Red" bag or the "more Blue" bag have been selected{% if previous_dr.0 > 0 %}, following {{previous_dr.0 | add:1}} rounds of draws{%endif%}:
Probability of the "more Red" bag:
%
Probability of the "more Blue" bag:
How certain are you about your guess above? Use the slider to indicate how strongly you believe in your estimate. In the figure below, the dark bar
represents your estimate, the lighter bars represent nearby values. The size of a bar represents your confidence for a given value.