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Summary: Sequence of events in each task

You will be asked to complete {{num_questions}} guessing tasks. For each task, there will be 2 decision screens:

Decision screen 1

You will be asked to enter probabilities that express how likely you think it is that Bag A or Bag B has been selected.

The following aspects will vary across the different guessing tasks:

Decision screen 2

You will be asked to indicate how certain you are that the guess you provided on decision screen 1 is close to the optimal guess in this task.



Your payment for part 1

You can potentially earn {{prize}} with your guess. Your probability of winning {{prize}} is higher the higher the probability you assign to the bag that actually got selected. If Part 1 determines your payment, the computer will randomly select one of your guesses to be relevant for your payment.

To maximize your earnings, you should therefore simply try to guess as accurately as possible which bag was selected. In case you’re interested, the specific formula that determines whether you get the prize is explained here.

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