{% extends "global/Base.html" %} {% load staticfiles otree_tags %} {% block title %} Instructions (3/4)
Using the laws of probability, the computer computes a statistically correct statement of the probability that Bag A was selected, based on all the information available to you. This optimal guess does not rely on information that you do not have. It is just the best possible (this means: payoff-maximizing) estimate given the available information. In technical terms, this guess is based on a statistical rule called Bayes' Law.
Suppose that you stated that Bag A was selected with probability 80%. Your second decision screen would then look like this:
Your decision on the previous screen indicates that you believe there is a 80% chance of Bag A having been selected.
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very uncertain completely certain
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