{% extends "global/Base.html" %} {% load staticfiles otree_tags %} {% block title %} Instructions (4/4)
In total, you will be asked to complete {{num_questions}} guessing tasks. For each task, there will be 2 decision screens:
{% if player.bags_first == 2 %}
You will be asked to enter probabilities that express how likely you think it is that Bag A was secretly selected.
{% else %}
You will be asked to enter probabilities that express how likely you think it is that either Bag A or one of the other bags (B-J) was secretly selected.
This means that we will not separately ask you for the probability that Bag B or Bag C got selected.
We will only ask you how likely it is that Bag A vs. one of the other bags got selected.
{% endif %}
The following aspects will vary across the different guessing tasks:
You will be asked to indicate how certain you are that the guess you provided on decision screen 1 is close to the optimal guess in this task.
You can potentially earn {{prize}} with your guess. Your probability of winning {{prize}} is higher the higher the probability you assign to the bag that actually got selected. If Part 1 determines your payment, the computer will randomly select one of your guesses to be relevant for your payment.
To maximize your earnings, you should therefore simply try to guess as accurately as possible which bag was selected. In case you’re interested, the specific formula that determines whether you get the prize is explained here.