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The optimal guess

Using the laws of probability, the computer computes a statistically correct statement of the probability that Bag A was selected, based on all the information available to you. This optimal guess does not rely on information that you do not have. It is just the best possible (this means: payoff-maximizing) estimate given the available information. In technical terms, this guess is based on a statistical rule called Bayes' Law.


Decision screen 2: Your certainty about your guess

In any given task, you may actually be uncertain about whether your probability guess corresponds to the optimal guess. On decision screen 2, we will ask you to select a button to indicate how certain you are that the optimal guess is within ± 1 percentage point of your answer.

Example

{% include "beliefs_default_manip/CardsBagsDrawIllustration.html" %}

Suppose that you stated that Bag A was selected with probability 80%. Your second decision screen would then look like this:

Your decision on the previous screen indicates that you believe there is a 80% chance of Bag A having been selected.

How certain are you that the optimal guess is somewhere between 79.0% and 81.0%?
{% for x, i in radio_amounts %} {% endif %} {% endfor %}

{% if x != 1 %}
{% else %}
very uncertain
completely certain



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