In the next two tasks, you will be asked to guess the chance that some event occurs. Your guess is a percentage probability from 0 to 100, with 0 indicating a 0-out-of-100 chance that the event occurs and 100 indicating a 100-out-of-100 chance that the event occurs. The number you provide is called Your Guess.
You choose Your Guess by clicking the response bar on your screen. The width of the green part of the bar indicates your guess that the event occurs.
The gray part of the bar is 100 - Your Guess, and represents your guess that the event does not occur.
We now explain how Your Guess is used to determine whether you earn the $5. The payment rule is designed so that you can secure the largest chance of earning the $5 by reporting your most-accurate guess.
The event occurs: You will earn the $5 if Your Guess is greater than or equal to either Computer Number A or Computer Number B or both numbers.
The event does not occur: You will earn the $5 if Your Guess is less than or equal to either Computer Number A or Computer Number B or both numbers.
To help you understand the payment rule, as you move the slider to choose Your Guess, the computer will inform you of:
For example, consider an urn filled with four balls. Three of those balls are red and one of those balls is green. You could be asked to guess whether a randomly selected ball from the urn is red. Suppose Your Guess was 75% and the ball selected was red. If either of the computer numbers is 75 or lower, then you would earn the $5. If both are above 75, you would not earn the $5. On the other hand, suppose your guess was 75% and the ball selected was not red. If either of the computer numbers is 75 or higher, then you would earn the $5. If both are below 75, you would not earn the $5.
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