Specific instructions stage 2
You again participate in 7 asset market games. Each game consists of consecutive 5 rounds.
In every round, there are two assets in which you can invest. On the one hand,
there is a bond that is always paying 3 monetary units for certain. On the other hand,
there is a stock which is either paying 1 or 5 monetary units. In every round, your task is to choose whether
you want to invest into the bond or the stock. For each choice, you have up to 120 seconds to decide.
If you do not make a choice after 120 second, you will automatically invest into the bond.
The probability that an investment into the stock yields the high payoff (5 units),
depends on the stock's fundamental state.
With an equal probability (50%/50%), the fundamental state can either be good, or bad.
Good state: If the stock is in a good state, the probability for the high payoff equals 70%.
This is, with a chance of 70% you receive the payoff of 5, and with 30% you receive the payoff of 1.
Bad state: If the stock is in a bad state, the probability for the high payoff equals 30%.
This is, with a chance of 30% you receive the payoff of 5, and with 70% you receive the payoff of 1.
In every round, before you make your decision, you receive independent opinions of 4 experts about the stock’s payoff in the given round.
Each expectation can either say High Payoff, or Low Payoff, indicating the expert’s expectation about the stock’s payoff in this round.
The expectations can be correct or incorrect and correlate with the stock’s actual payoff in a certain way.
If you have figured out the underlying patterns, the expectations can help you identify when the stock will yield a high payoff.
Note:
The expert's expectations relate the stock’s actual payoff in the exact same way as in stage 1.
A history of the experts’ opinions, and the actual payoff of the stock of previous rounds is shown in every market game.