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Welcome-Instructions






Overview of a round






Stage 1: Mother urns


  1. There are two urns, Mother Orange, and Mother Blue each of which has 100 balls.
    Those 100 balls are represented by two characteristics: shape (e.g., ) or three-digit number (e.g., ).
  2. The number of shapes and three-digit numbers may vary across rounds.
    At the beginning of each round, you will be informed of the compositions of the two Mother urns.
  3. For instance, the figure below shows the composition of each urn in a round.
    In the Mother Orange urn, 52 balls are represented by shapes and 48 balls by numbers.
    In the Mother Blue urn, 80 balls are represented by shapes and 20 balls by numbers.



Stage 2: Baby urns


  1. The experimental program will create the Baby Orange and the Baby blue urns from each of the Mother urns.
    25 balls are randomly drawn from each of the Mother Orange and the Mother Blue with Replacement: That is, after a ball is randomly selected from a Mother urn, the ball is put back into the Mother urn.
    The following is an example of how Baby urns can be formed.
  1. The above shows how Baby urns can be created. Let's look into how a Baby Orange urn is formed.




Decision of inferring X






Stage 3: Signal urns


  1. Now 25 balls will be randomly drawn from each of the two Baby urns with replacement. We call these two urns the “Signal” urns. That is, 25 balls in the Signal Orange urn will be randomly drawn from the Baby Orange urn with replacement. The same procedure applies to the Signal Blue urn.
    The following is an example of how Signal urns can be formed.
  1. The above is an example of how Signal urns are created. Let's look into how a Signal Orange urn is formed.



Summary of urns and random draws






Payment






Quiz


Question 1
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Question 2
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Question 3
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Question 4
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Question 5
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