Note: The experimental software will not work properly on small screens like cellphones, so please use a laptop or other device with large enough screen.
The purpose of this research is to study how people make predictions. Your input will help our research develop a better understanding about how people make predictions. We appreciate your participation. We hope you will also find the tasks of this study interesting.
After carefully reading the instructions, you will go through 70 prediction rounds, and you will make 2 predictions per round. At the end, you will be asked to answer a short questionnaire.
It takes about 45 minutes to complete the study. You are free to spend as much time as you like.
You will receive a base payment of £4.50 for participating in this study. In addition to the base payment, you will receive a bonus payment. When you make serious predictions, the typical bonus payment will be between £2.50 and £8, but the precise amount will depend on the accuracy of your predictions. Your base payment and possible bonus payment will be distributed separately within one week via Prolific. Please feel free to contact us using the contact information below if you have any questions about payments. A summary of your payments will be displayed at the end of the study. You may save that page for your records.
Importantly, please take the time to seriously study the experimental instructions and try to make accurate predictions. If you simply click through the 70 rounds without giving consideration to the required task and environment, you are unlikely to earn a bonus payment. Moreover, in some cases, your submission may then be rejected. If, along the way, you decide you do not want to finish the study, you can stop at any time and return your submission. Unfinished submissions that are not returned may be rejected.
The data of this study will be stored at Heidelberg University, Germany, indefinitely. The Legal framework under which the Data will be held is the EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Data analysis will be based on anonymized data. Part or all of the anonymized data may be shared with other researchers or be made available publicly for academic replication after publication. If, at some point after you participated in the study, you want to retract your participation, you can do so by contacting us. Your data will then be deleted.
If you have any questions, concerns, or suggestions related to this study or concerning the processing of your data, please contact us through prolific or by email (joep.lustenhouwer@awi.uni-heidelberg.de).
Contact person: JProf. Dr. Joep Lustenhouwer, Heidelberg University, Bergheimer Str. 58, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany.
If you consent and you still want to participate in our experiment, please tick the „Consent“ box.
{% formfield player.consent %}