{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block title %} PART 4 - Instructions {% endblock %} {% block content %}

In this task, you will be part of a group of {{ player.participant.vars.size }} players.

{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'c' %} {% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'd' %} {% endif %}

A ball is drawn for each player from the jar depicted on the left that has {{ player.participant.vars.blue_balls }} blue ball(s) and {{ player.participant.vars.red_balls }} orange ball(s).
After a ball is randomly drawn for one player, it is put back in the jar before another ball is drawn for the next player (draws are independent from each other).
Note that the color of the ball drawn for you may be different from that of others.
Moreover, you know what ball was drawn for you but not what balls were drawn for others.

Next, you are asked to make a choice: to choose between blue and orange.

Your payoff depends on the color of the ball drawn for you and the group decision.
When the color of the ball that is drawn for you matches the group decision, you earn £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }};
Otherwise, you earn £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }}.

The player's payoffs Group decision
ORANGE BLUE
color of the ball drawn for the player orange £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }} £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }}
blue £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }}
The same applies to other members of your group: they earn £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }} when the group decision matches the color of the ball drawn for them, and £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} otherwise. Because the color of the ball drawn for each player may be different, the group decision you end up in may imply different payoffs for each player.
{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' %} {% else %} {% endif %} Players make decisions one by one in a queue.
You only have the chance to influence the group decision if people before you in the queue, if any, chose blue. Similarly, people after you in the queue, if any, only have the chance to influence the group decision if you choose blue.
You are asked to make a decision assuming that people before you in the queue, if any, chose blue.

You will be making this decision in different scenarios.
Scenarios vary in the color of the ball drawn for you and your position in the decision queue (1st to choose, 2nd to choose, ...).
In some scenarios, the ball drawn for you will be blue and in others it will be orange.
Thus, the group decision associated to a payoff of £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }} for you will vary between scenarios.

{#

#} {# As mentioned, before making a decision, you are informed about the color of the ball drawn for you.
#} {# While you don't know what ball was drawn for other players in your group, you do know the probabilities associated to each color.
#} {# Below are the probabilities that no, some or all other members of your group#} {# earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} instead of a payoff of £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }}#} {# when the group decision ends up being ORANGE#} {# which happens when the ball drawn for them is blue.#} {#

#}

As mentioned, if you or any player in your group choose orange, the group decision will be ORANGE.
In that case, if the ball drawn for a player is blue, their payoff will be £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} instead of £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }}.
While you don't know what ball was drawn for other players in your group when making a decision, you do know the odds associated to each color.
Below are the probabilities that no some or all other members of your group earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} instead of £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }} when the group decision ends up being ORANGE, which happens when the ball drawn for them is blue.

{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' %}

Probability that among other members of your group...
NO player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE6.4%
AT LEAST 1 player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE93.6%
HALF OR MORE players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE64.8%
ALL players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE21.6%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' %}
Probability that among other members of your group...
NO player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE0.1%
AT LEAST 1 player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE99.9%
HALF OR MORE players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE97.2%
ALL players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE72.9%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'c' %}
Probability that among other members of your group...
NO player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE0.2%
AT LEAST 1 player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE99.8%
HALF OR MORE players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE71.0%
ALL players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE2.8%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'd' %}
Probability that among other members of your group...
NO player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE0.0%
AT LEAST 1 player earns a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE100.0%
HALF OR MORE players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE99.7%
ALL players earn a payoff of £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} from group decision ORANGE47.8%
{% endif %}

Your choices carry financial consequences:
At the end of the study, when all participants similarly recruited in Prolific have submitted their answers:

If you are one of the selected participants, this means that your decision in one of the scenarios will determine your earnings, together with decisions made by others. Thus, for each scenario consider your decision carefully.






Have you understood the task?
Next you will be presented with some comprehension questions regarding one possible scenario.
After answering all questions correctly, the task will start with one decision per scenario.
When you are ready, please press the "Next" button.


{% next_button %} {% endblock %} {% block styles %} {% endblock %}