{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block title %} PART 4 - Instructions based on an example {% endblock %} {% block content %}
{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' %} {% else %} {% endif %} Consider that... you are the 2nd player of a group of {{ player.participant.vars.size }} participants.
Each player decides between two options, blue and orange.
Players make decisions in a sequential manner and previous player(s) chose blue.

Consider that... for each player payoffs are determined by a random draw from a jar with {{ player.participant.vars.blue_balls }} blue ball(s) and {{ player.participant.vars.red_balls }} orange ball(s) as represented in the Figure below. Thus, for each player, it is more likely that a blue ball is drawn than an orange ball.
After a ball is drawn for one player, it is put back in the jar before another ball is drawn for the next player (draws are independent from each other).
While you don't know what ball was drawn for each player, you do know the probabilities associated to each color.

{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'c' %} {% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' or player.participant.vars.treatment == 'd' %} {% endif %} Consider that... a(n) orange ball is drawn for you out of that jar. This means that:
  • if the outcome is ORANGE, it matches the color of the ball drawn for you and you are paid £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }};
  • if the outcome is BLUE, it does not match the color of the ball drawn for you and you are paid £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }}.
Thus, your payoff is higher when the outcome matches the color of the ball drawn for you.
The same rules apply to all members of your group: others get a higher payoff when the outcome matches the color of the ball drawn for them.
Note that the color of the ball drawn for you may be different from that of others. Thus, the outcome associated to a higher payoff may be different between players.

How do you influence the outcome?
Previous player(s) have chosen blue and it is now your chance to choose as the 2nd player in the decision queue.
As represented in the sketch below:

Thus, outcome BLUE is possible if you choose blue and impossible if you choose orange.
The same rules apply to all members of your group. This implies that it is necessary that all players in the group choose blue for the final outcome to be BLUE; by contrast, only one player choosing orange is enough for the final outcome to be ORANGE.
Note that the fact that you get the chance to choose is due to all previous players having chosen blue.

Below are the probabilities that no, some or all other members of your group have lower payoffs if the outcome ends up being ORANGE. Recall that a player earns £{{ Constants.lower_payoff_AP }} instead of £{{ Constants.higher_payoff_AP }} when the outcome doesn't match the color of the ball that was drawn for them. Again, the outcome is determined by everyone's choices, including yours.

{% if player.participant.vars.treatment == 'a' %}

Probability that...
NO other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE6.4%
AT LEAST 1 other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE93.6%
HALF OR MORE other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE64.8%
ALL other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE21.6%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'b' %}
Probability that...
NO other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE0.1%
AT LEAST 1 other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE99.9%
HALF OR MORE other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE97.2%
ALL other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE72.9%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'c' %}
Probability that...
NO other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE0.2%
AT LEAST 1 other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE99.8%
HALF OR MORE other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE71.0%
ALL other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE0.2%
{% elif player.participant.vars.treatment == 'd' %}
Probability that...
NO other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE0.0%
AT LEAST 1 other player gets a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE100.0%
HALF OR MORE other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE99.7%
ALL other players get a lower payoff from outcome ORANGE47.8%
{% endif %}

One decision per scenario:
You will be asked to consider different scenarios (each page will contain one scenario only).
In each scenario, watch out for the color of the ball drawn for you (that determines the outcome associated to a higher payoff for you) and your position in the decision queue. These will vary between scenarios while all else will be constant. In the example above, an orange ball was drawn for you and you were 2nd in the decision queue given former player(s) chose blue.
In each scenario, you will be asked to make a choice between blue and orange.


Your choices will effectively have financial consequences:
One of the scenarios will be selected at random and your decision in that scenario will determine your earnings, as will the decisions made by the group members you will be randomly matched with. Specifically, at the end of the study, when all participants similarly recruited in Prolific have submitted their answers:

Thus, consider your decision carefully in each scenario as it will determine your and others' earnings.





Have you read the instructions carefully?
Next you will be presented with some comprehension questions.
After answering all questions correctly, the task will start with one decision per scenario.
When you are ready, please press the "Next" button.

{% endblock %} {% block styles %} {% endblock %}