{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block title %} {% endblock %} {% block content %} For a product, you will get to see professional forecasters' best guesses of its future true demand. BUT, the forecasters are not perfectly accurate. Their forecasts are correct on average, but sometimes err high and sometimes low. So the forecasts are hints, but don't tell you exactly what the true demand will be. The distribution of the forecast errors looks like this:



So you can think of each forecast for a given product as a random draw from the distribution in the graph above. Because they do completely separate market research, each forecaster's errors are completely independent from each other's. On average, each forecaster is equally accurate.

Using the hints of the their forecasts, you will need to try to figure out a product's true demand to make your production decision.

{% next_button %}
{% endblock %}