{% extends "global/Page.html" %}
{% load otree %}

{% block title %}Make an Estimate{% endblock %}

{% block content %}
<div class="card bg-light m-3">
    <div class="card-body">

        {% if is_control %}

        <p>In this second part of the experiment, you will be asked to provide an estimate.</p>

        <p>The estimate is about your rank range in the guessing task you completed at the beginning.
        In the following, we will explain how you will indicate your estimate of your rank and how
        this estimate influences your earnings.</p>

        <h5>a) How will you indicate your estimate of your rank?</h5>
        <p>There are <strong>250 participants</strong> in your group, including you, who have completed the same
        guessing task. According to the performance of 250 participants in your group, each of them gets ranked.</p>
        <ul>
            <li><strong>Rank 1</strong> means you are in the top 10% (0% &lt; rank &le; 10%) — assigned to the participant with the <em>best</em> performance (highest number of correct answers).</li>
            <li><strong>Rank 2</strong> is between 10% and 20% (10% &lt; rank &le; 20%)</li>
            <li>&hellip;</li>
            <li><strong>Rank 10</strong> (90% &lt; rank &le; 100%) — assigned to the participant with the <em>worst</em> performance.</li>
        </ul>
        <p>We wish you to provide us with your estimate of your rank as an <strong>integer between 1 and 10</strong>.</p>

        <h5>b) How does your estimate of your rank influence your earnings?</h5>
        <p>The more your estimate of your rank is precise, the more likely it is that you will earn
        <strong>300 tokens</strong>. In other words, the likelihood you earn the 300 tokens is greater,
        the closer your estimate of your rank is to your real rank.</p>

        <p>Your earnings in this part of the experiment are determined as follows.</p>
        <ol>
            <li>The computer will randomly generate a number between <strong>0 and 81</strong>.
            Each number from 0 to 81 is equally likely.</li>
            <li>The difference between your estimate of your rank and your real rank is your
            <strong>prediction error</strong>. If your prediction error <em>multiplied by itself</em>
            is not greater than the randomly generated number, you win <strong>300 tokens</strong>.
            Otherwise, you win <strong>0 tokens</strong>.</li>
        </ol>

        <p><strong>Important:</strong> You might wonder why we have chosen this payment rule. The reason is that
        this payment rule makes it optimal for you to state truthfully your estimate of your rank.</p>

        <div class="alert alert-secondary">
            <strong>Example:</strong> Your estimate of your rank is 3, but given your relative performance
            at the task, your real rank is 5. In this case, your prediction error is 3 &minus; 5 = &minus;2.
            Your prediction error multiplied by itself is 4. If the randomly generated number is &ge; 4
            (for example 10), then you win 300 tokens. If the randomly generated number is &lt; 4
            (for example 2), then you win 0 tokens.
        </div>

        <p>Please be aware that you will <strong>not</strong> be informed about your real rank until the very end
        of the experiment. This is the end of the instructions of this part of the experiment.</p>

        {% else %}

        <p>In this part of the experiment, you will be asked to provide an estimate.</p>

        <p>The estimate is about your rank range in the memory task you completed at the beginning.
        In the following, we will explain how you will indicate your estimate of your rank and how
        this estimate influences your earnings.</p>

        <h5>a) How will you indicate your estimate of your rank?</h5>
        <p>There are <strong>250 participants</strong> in your group, including you, who have completed the same
        memory task. According to the performance of 250 participants in your group, each of them gets ranked.</p>
        <ul>
            <li><strong>Rank 1</strong> means you are in the top 10% (0% &lt; rank &le; 10%) — assigned to the participant with the <em>best</em> performance (highest number of correct answers).</li>
            <li><strong>Rank 2</strong> is between 10% and 20% (10% &lt; rank &le; 20%)</li>
            <li>&hellip;</li>
            <li><strong>Rank 10</strong> (90% &lt; rank &le; 100%) — assigned to the participant with the <em>worst</em> performance.</li>
        </ul>
        <p>We wish you to provide us with your estimate of your rank as an <strong>integer between 1 and 10</strong>.</p>

        <h5>b) How does your estimate of your rank influence your earnings?</h5>
        <p>The more precise your estimate of your rank, the more likely it is that you will earn
        <strong>300 tokens</strong>. In other words, the likelihood you earn the 300 tokens is greater,
        the closer your estimate of your rank is to your real rank.</p>

        <p>Your earnings in this part are determined as follows:</p>
        <ol>
            <li>The computer will randomly generate a number between <strong>0 and 81</strong>.
            Each number from 0 to 81 is equally likely.</li>
            <li>The difference between your estimate and your real rank is your <strong>prediction error</strong>.
            If your prediction error <em>multiplied by itself</em> is not greater than the randomly generated
            number, you win <strong>300 tokens</strong>. Otherwise, you win <strong>0 tokens</strong>.</li>
        </ol>

        <p><strong>Important:</strong> You might wonder why we have chosen this payment rule. The reason is that
        this payment rule makes it optimal for you to state truthfully your estimate of your rank.</p>

        <div class="alert alert-secondary">
            <strong>Example:</strong> Your estimate is rank 3 (20% &lt; rank &le; 30%), but your real rank is 5
            (40% &lt; rank &le; 50%). Your prediction error is 3 &minus; 5 = &minus;2. Your prediction error
            multiplied by itself is 4. If the randomly generated number is &ge; 4 (e.g. 20), you win 300 tokens.
            If it is &lt; 4 (e.g. 2), you win 0 tokens.
        </div>

        <p>Please be aware that you will <strong>not</strong> be informed about your real rank until the very end
        of the experiment.</p>

        <p>This is the end of the instructions for this part of the experiment.</p>

        {% endif %}

    </div>
</div>
{% next_button %}
{% endblock %}