{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree %} {% block title %} Immaterial Error Probability Prediction Task {% endblock %} {% block content %}
If your client's file is audited, what do you believe is the probability (0-100%) that a immaterial error will be found by the regulator in this round?
Note that you can earn up to 5000 extra LabRands if your answer is close to the correct answer.
We use a Binarized Scoring Rule. Your prediction is used to calculate an "error score." The closer your prediction is to the true likelihood, the lower the error score. The computer then draws a random number between 0 and 1. If your error score is less than that random number, you win the prize. Making your error as small as possible maximises your chance of winning.
Mathematically: This mechanism is "incentive compatible." This means that your expected earnings are highest when you report your true belief. There is no way to "game" the system; being honest is your best strategy.