What do you believe is the probability (0-100%) that you will be selected
for an audit by the regulator in this round?
0% (Impossible)50%100% (Certain)
Your Prediction:50%
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How your payment is calculated:
We use a Binarized Scoring Rule. Your prediction is used to calculate an "error score."
The computer then draws a random number between 0 and 1.
If your error score is less than that random number, you win the prize.
Mathematically: This mechanism is "incentive compatible." This means that your
expected earnings are highest when you report your true subjective belief.
There is no way to "game" the system; being honest is your best strategy.