Why multiple scenarios are presented below?
Here we look at your guess for every potential scenario that might happen if, in position 3, you choose to
observe the guess of the preceding players.
All players eligible for the bonus payment are determined once all guesses of all the players are collected:
Step 1: You and three other random players are randomly ordered into the sequence starting from
position 1 to position 4, one position for each player.
Step 2: A group urn is then randomly selected, each urn with an equal probability.
Step 3: If you choose to observe the guesses of other players in the position you are assigned to
(in Step 1), we will check the guesses of the players that precede you and then check your group urn guess
conditional on those group urn guesses by preceding players. If your group urn guess, which you have selected in
response to the relevant group urn guesses of the preceding players, matches the actual group urn,
you will be
paid the bonus.