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A computer will randomly assign you to a 4-member group. You will not know who your group members and neither will they learn your identity. You will remain in this same group, with the same 3 other participants, for the duration of the experiment.

All of you will participate in 4 independent rounds of decision-making within the group. At the start of the first three rounds, a computer will randomly assign you to a new position within your 4-member group: “position 1”, “position 2”, “position 3”, or “position 4”. You will be in each position only once, so will each member of your group.
There are two “urns” (containers) which are labelled as the “Blue” urn and the “Red” urn.

The “Red” urn contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball:

“Red” urn:

The “Blue” urn contains 2 blue balls and 1 red ball:

“Blue” urn:

At the beginning of each round, a computer will randomly select one of these urns with an equal 50% probability. Neither you nor other members of your group are informed as to which urn is selected for the round. The selected urn will be the same urn for all members of your 4-member group for that particular round.

We will call this selected urn the “group urn”.
In each round, each participant’s ultimate task is to correctly guess which of the two urns has actually been selected by the computer as the group urn for that round.

Each of your group members, including you, will make her/his group urn guess one after the other, according to her/his position in sequence within the group in each round.

For example, if you are in position 2, you are the second person guessing the group urn in that round. Two other members of your group, assigned to position 3 and position 4, will guess after you. The member in position 1 will guess before you.

Whether you will receive the bonus will be determined exclusively by whether you correctly guess the randomly selected group urn (see Bonus payment on the next page for further explanation).
Position 1

If in a particular round you are randomly assigned to position 1 in your 4-member group...

...you will make only a single guess decision (“Urn Guess”) as described below.

Urn guess decision

The computer will randomly select for you one ball among the 3 balls in the actual group urn in that round. After observing the colour of the ball ( blue or red ), you will have to guess which group urn was selected in that specific round (the colour of the randomly drawn ball is revealed to you only). The ball that is drawn is always "returned" to the group urn.
Position 2, 3, or 4

If in a particular round you are instead randomly assigned to a position 2, 3, or 4 in your 4-member group...

...you will be asked first to select one of the two pieces of information as described below (“Information Choice”), and then to guess which group urn was selected in that specific round (“Urn Guess”) as described above in Urn Guess decision .

First, Information Choice decision

  • you can either select an option where the computer randomly draws a ball for you from the actual group urn selected for that round. You then observe its colour and the ball is "replaced" into the group urn.
  • or

  • you can select an option where you can see respective urn guesses of your group members preceding you in the sequence. For example, if you are in position 4, you will see respective group urn guesses by players in position 1, position 2, and position 3.

None of your group members including you can see which Information Choice option was selected by other players nor can you observe what they have seen after choosing a particular strategy.

Then, Urn Guess decision

After making your Information Choice decision, you will make your Urn Guess decision as described above in Urn guess decision .
One of the four rounds you have played will be randomly chosen and your sequence position will be the same as in that chosen round. Thus, each round has an equal 25% chance of being chosen and you are equally likely to be in each of the four positions.

Receiving the bonus depends solely on whether your urn guess matches the selected group urn in that randomly chosen round. You will be paid the bonus if your guess matches the actual group urn in that round.

Since you do not know which round will be randomly selected, you will want to do your best in each and every round.