{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree %} {% block title %} Forecast #{{ subsession.round_number }} - Second decision stage {% endblock %} {% block content %}



{% if player.ctrl_treat == 'control_fb' %} {% elif player.ctrl_treat == 'treatment1' %} For creating a forecast, the ML algorithm takes the following 15 features into account:
(Put your mouse over a feature to see its description)
Avg_total Avg_month 1_day_ago 4_days_ago 1_week_ago
Avg_year Avg_week 2_days_ago 5_days_ago 1_month_ago
Avg_quarter Avg_weekday 3_days_ago 6_days_ago 1_year_ago
{% elif player.ctrl_treat == 'treatment2' or player.ctrl_treat == 'treatment3_fb' %} For creating a forecast, the ML algorithm takes the following 15 features into account. In each cell, in bold, you can see by how much the respective feature shifts the "base value" in order to arrive at the forecast. :
(Put your mouse over a feature to see its description)
Avg_total = {{ Avg_total }}
{{ Shap_Avg_total }}
Avg_month = {{ Avg_month }}
{{ Shap_Avg_month }}
1_day_ago = {{ 1_day_ago }}
{{ Shap_1_day_ago }}
4_days_ago = {{ 4_days_ago }}
{{ Shap_4_days_ago }}
1_week_ago = {{ 1_week_ago }}
{{ Shap_1_week_ago }}
Avg_year = {{ Avg_year }}
{{ Shap_Avg_year }}
Avg_week = {{ Avg_week }}
{{ Shap_Avg_week }}
2_days_ago = {{ 2_days_ago }}
{{ Shap_2_days_ago }}
5_days_ago = {{ 5_days_ago }}
{{ Shap_5_days_ago }}
1_month_ago = {{ 1_month_ago }}
{{ Shap_1_month_ago }}
Avg_quarter = {{ Avg_quarter }}
{{ Shap_Avg_quarter }}
Avg_weekday = {{ Avg_weekday }}
{{ Shap_Avg_weekday }}
3_days_ago = {{ 3_days_ago }}
{{ Shap_3_days_ago }}
6_days_ago = {{ 6_days_ago }}
{{ Shap_6_days_ago }}
1_year_ago = {{ 1_year_ago }}
{{ Shap_1_year_ago }}
Output = 104.7 (base value) + ({{ Shap_Avg_total }}) + ({{ Shap_Avg_year }}) + ({{ Shap_Avg_quarter }}) + ({{ Shap_Avg_month }}) + ({{ Shap_Avg_week }}) + ({{ Shap_Avg_weekday }}) + ({{ Shap_1_day_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_2_days_ago }})
+ ({{ Shap_3_days_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_4_days_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_5_days_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_6_days_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_1_week_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_1_month_ago }}) + ({{ Shap_1_year_ago }}) ≈ {{ ml_prediction }}

{% endif %}
Your initial forecast is:
{{ player.F1_Initial }}
ML algorithm forecast: (rounded to closest integer value)
{{ ml_prediction }}
{% formfield player.F1_Revised %} {% next_button %}
{% endblock %}