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Initial Situation

You own a private brewery. There is one big customer you supply on a monthly basis.
You are responsible to make sure that the customer's demand is fulfilled to the best extent possible.
In order to do so, you have to decide how much beer (in liter) should be produced per month.

There are sources of supporting information that can be taken into account for the decision making process:

Every month, there are two stages you have to go through for making a forecast.
In a first stage the actual demand of the five recent months and the sales forecast will be presented.
In a second stage additionally the algorithm forecast will be available.

Task Description

Your task is to insert a numeric value as a forecast for the amount of beer that will be produced for the next month to come.
In the first stage of each forecasting scenario you give your initial forecast.
In the second stage of each forecasting scenario you are allowed to enter a new forecast.
It is up to you to stay with the initial value (by entering the same value again) or to adjust.

In total you will plan for an entire year, so there are 12 successive forecasting scenarios to be made.

Payoff

Each participant starts with an initial payoff of {{ Constants.endowment }}. Your decisions should be as close as possible to the real demand in order to increase your payoff. Larger deviations from the real demand result in a smaller increase or add no value at all.

At the end of the game you will receive ... according to your absolute payoff in relation to other participants absolute payoff.

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