{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree %} {% block content %} {% include "joint_inference/_styles.html" %}

How you play

Each trial in 5 steps

  1. Draw your sample. 10 or 50 balls from Box 1 (with replacement).
  2. Q1. First estimate. How many of the 100 balls in Box 1 are red?
  3. See two reports. Report A and Report B — one is from your partner, one is from the imposter.
  4. Q2. Identity bet. You decide how confident you are that Report A came from your partner. You will see a list of choices between: In each row, the probability in Option B changes. As the lottery becomes more attractive, you may want to switch from Option A to Option B. Choose the point at which you prefer the lottery instead of the bet.
  5. Q3. Updated estimate. Update your estimate of red balls in Box 1.

Scoring

For each of the {{ num_main }} scored trials, one of Q1, Q2, or Q3 is randomly selected to determine your points for that trial.

Question How it scores
Q1, Q3 (estimates) You earn 100 minus your error squared, scaled so that off by 20 or more = 0 points. For example: off by 5 = 93 points, off by 10 = 75 points, off by 15 = 43 points, off by 20 or more = 0 points.
Q2 (identity bet) One row of the price list is selected at random; your chosen option is played out. 0 or 100 points.

Maximum per trial: 100 points.

Practice first, then play for real

You'll start with {{ num_practice }} practice trials with feedback after each, so you can see how the game works. Practice trials earn no points.

Then you'll play {{ num_main }} scored trials back-to-back without feedback. Your results and points will be shown at the end.

Ready? Click below to start the first practice trial.

{{ next_button }} {% endblock %}