{{ block title }} Instructions to make your bet {{ endblock }} {{ block content }}

In every trial, you will indicate a number x between 0 and 100 that tries to capture the probability of box Yellow being selected. This determines the probabilities in the next bet:

Bet on box selected by the computer:

If the computer selected box Yellow, you will make $8 with probability (1- x^2) If the computer selected box Green, you will make $8 with probability (1 - x^2)

Notice that if you are confident that the Yellow box was selected, you should choose x=1 since this guarantees you $8.

Participant 2 will also bet on which box was selected for them by reporting the number x2. You will indicate a number y between 0 and 100 that tries to capture the bet made participant 2. This determines the probabilities in the next bet:

Bet on Participant 2’s bet

You will make $8 with probability (1- x2^2)

Notice that if you are confident that participant 2 bet on the Yellow box (x2=1), you should choose y=1 since this guarantees you $8 These bets were designed such that, if you are accurate about the probability of each outcome, your chances of getting an $8 prize are maximized. Be as accurate as possible, and carefully consider the probability of each outcome. Every trial is independent of every other, and only one will be selected randomly to determine your final payment. So, please make your best decision in each trial.

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