You receive {{participant.payoff_plus_participation_fee}}

When you have read all the information, please click on the button below. This is essential, because your result will be sent to Respondi by clicking on the button. This will ensure that you can receive your payout.

To the payment processing

Below we explain how your payout comes about — i.e. which decision situation is relevant for your payout and how you decided there.

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It was randomly determined that your tradeoff from round {{ participant.vars.round_to_pay }} determines your payout.

In the selected round you had the choice between a lottery and a bet. The bet looked like this:

You win 10 euros according to the graphic shown below (and nothing otherwise).

You have indicated that you think a lottery is better than the bet only when there are at least {{ participant.vars.pivotal_matching_probability }} green balls in the lottery pot. The lottery pot prepared in the background contains {{ participant.vars.pivotal_lottery }} green balls.

Therefore, your payout in this round was determined by the {{ participant.vars.mechanism }}.

{% if participant.vars.mechanism == "Wette" %} {% if participant.vars.bet_success %}

Because the temperature has occurred according to your bet, you have won.

{% else %}

Because the temperature did not occur according to your bet, you unfortunately did not won.

{% endif %} {% else %} {% if participant.vars.lottery_success %}

Because a green ball was drawn at random, you won.

{% else %}

Because a red ball was drawn by chance, you unfortunately did not won.

{% endif %} {% endif %}

{{ participant.vars.location }} Oktober 2020

On Sunday, October 18 at 2 pm, °C were measured.

The weather report that we have shown you and on which your decisions as well as your possible payouts are based, refers to the weather in {{ participant.vars.location }} {% if participant.vars.location == "Ilomantsi" %} (Finland) {% else %} (Germany) {% endif %} in October 2020. The measurement data on which this study is based and which is relevant for your payout can be found {% if participant.vars.location == "Ilomantsi" %} here and here. {% else %} here and here. {% endif %} The weather forecast we have presented to you from the second round onwards also comes from Kachelmannwetter and was calculated using the Global Euro HD (ECMMF) ensemble. We have retrieved the data on 09.10.2020 at {% if participant.vars.location == "Ilomantsi" %}15:59{%else%}14:29{%endif%} o'clock (CET) as you can see in this screenshot.

{% if participant.vars.location == "Ilomantsi" %}

Wettervorhersage für {{ participant.vars.location }}

{% else %}

{% endif %}