How many green balls must be in the lottery pot at least for you to prefer the lottery?
Bet
You win 10 euros according to the graphic below (and nothing otherwise).
Lottery
You win 10 euros if a green ball is drawn (and nothing otherwise).
The bet refers to the same weather situation and time of day (9 days later), that
was just presented to you. If you desire, you can look at it again
here
.
There are a total of 100 balls in the lottery pot, which are either green or red.
With your decision you determine the fraction of green balls.
How many green balls must be at least in the lottery pot for you to
prefer the lottery just so prefer?
Experts made a forecast for Sunday 9 days later 14:00 (CET) on Friday:
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Temperatures were 12°C (at 14:00) between Wednesday and Friday.
Without knowing what location and time the weather shown above refers to, the following tasks
require you to estimate what temperature ranges you think are likely to occur
on Sunday 9 days later
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(i.e., in the purple shaded area)
{% endif %}
at the same location and time of day.
