{{ block title }}

Strategies

{{ endblock }}
{{ block content }}


    <div class="container">
        <h2 class="text-center">Instructions</h2>
        <hr>

        <div class="row">
            <div class="col-md-12">
                <p>
                    In this experiment, you and another participant will be presented with two boxes, the Yellow box and the Green box. The Yellow box contains 60% yellow marbles and 40% green marbles, and the Green box contains 40% yellow marbles and 60% green marbles. The probability of selecting the Yellow box is 90% for you, and 20% for the other participant.
                </p>
                <p>
                    After one of the boxes is randomly selected, a sample of 10 marbles is drawn with replacement from the selected box. Your task is to estimate the probability that the Yellow box generated the sequence of marbles, given your observed sample and your prior belief about which box was selected. Your prior belief is based on the number of boxes in a cabinet from which the box was randomly drawn. There are 9 Yellow boxes and 1 Green box in the cabinet for you, and 2 Yellow boxes and 8 Green boxes in the cabinet for the other participant.
                </p>
                <p>
                    You will have to decide on a strategy to estimate the probability of the Yellow box generating the sequence for each possible sequence of marbles that could be drawn. You will also have to estimate the strategy of the other participant.
                </p>
                <p>
                    Please note that you and the other participant will make decisions simultaneously without taking turns. There are no rounds, just a report of your strategy facing different possible samples. Then a box and sequence will be randomly selected, and the strategy you chose will be implemented. You will also have the opportunity to increase your bonus by making an estimate of the other participant's strategy that is more accurate.
                </p>
                <p>
                    The better your estimates of the probabilities and strategies, the higher the probability of receiving a $8 bonus. Please make sure to read and understand the instructions carefully, as the accuracy of your decisions will determine the size of your bonus payment. Good luck!
                </p>
            </div>
        </div>

    </div>

    {{ next_button }}

{{ endblock }}