{{ block title }} Three Tasks {{ endblock }} {{ block content }}
Your were randomly paired with another participant (Participant 2) in this session.
The computer selects the Yellow Box with a probability of: 20%, 50%, or 90%. Each probability is used in a task where you and Participant 2 have to report the strategy for each sample. You and Participant 2 will know the probability that the Yellow Box will be selected in each task.
For every possible sample of four marbles, you and Participant 2 will guess the probability the computer selected either the Yellow or the Green box to draw that sample. You will have to wait until Participant 2 has reported their guesses before continuing to the next task.
The computer can select the Yellow Box with one of these probabilities (in %): 20, 50, or 90. You can think of this as selecting randomly one box from one of three different cabinets:
Cabinet 1 | ||
---|---|---|
Boxes | Probability of selecting a Yellow Box | Probability of selecting a Green Box |
|
20 | 80 |
Cabinet 2 | ||
---|---|---|
Boxes | Probability of selecting a Yellow Box | Probability of selecting a Green Box |
|
50 | 50 |
Cabinet 3 | ||
---|---|---|
Boxes | Probability of selecting a Yellow Box | Probability of selecting a Green Box |
|
90 | 10 |
In each task, you must report two decisions for every sample:
For example, the next table shows how you report your decisions for a sample of 1 yellow and 3 green marbles:
Sample | Number of yellow marbles |
Number of green marbles |
What is the probability (in %) you believe the Random box is Yellow? |
What is the probability (in %) Participant 2 believes the Random box is Yellow? |
---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 | 3 | Your Strategy: | Expected Strategy for Participant 2: |
The accuracy of your answers will determine your chances of getting up to $9 bonus. So, it is in your best interest to report the probability you think the Yellow Box was selected and what you expect Participant 2 would report. Consider carefully your strategies for each possible sample.
After you and Participant 2 reported your strategies in each task:
After you and Participant 2 have reported the strategies, the computer will use your strategy to determine your payment. The computer selects a Yellow or Green box with the probability in that task and generates a random sample from the selected Box. The strategy reported by you and Participant 2 will be implemented.
The payoffs won't be revealed until the end of the experiment.
Click the 'Next' button if the process to select the box is clear, or ask the experimenter if you have any questions.
You will have to complete an understanding test in the next page.
{{ formfields }} {{ next_button }} {{ endblock }}