{{ block title }} Section 1: Instructions {{ endblock }} {{ block content }}

In this experiment, you will report your predictions about the probabilities in percentage points (%). Where 0 means that you are sure the event didn't happen and 100 that the event certainly happened; any number in between means you think the event occurred with a certain chance.

In this experiment, you will be asked to select the strategy you and another participant would use in different scenarios of a similar problem. That strategy will be the best guess of the probability given some information. The computer will apply your reported strategy to determine your payoffs at the end of the section.

Problem to Consider: Boxes, Marbles, and Samples

There are two types of Boxes filled with five (5) marbles:

  1. The Yellow Box has three (3) yellow marbles and two (2) green marbles.
  2. The Green Box has three (3) green marbles and two (2) yellow marbles.
Then, the probability of drawing one yellow marble is equal to {{C.prob_y}}% if the Box selected is Yellow (three-fifths of the time a yellow marble is drawn) and {{C.prob_g}}% if the Box selected is Green (two-fifths of the time a yellow marble is drawn). The following table summarizes the probabilities associated with each Box:

Box Marbles Probability
(in percentage points)
of drawing
one yellow ball
Probability
(in percentage points)
of drawing
one green ball

{{C.p_yellow_Yellow}} {{C.p_yellow_Green}}

{{C.p_yellow_Green}} {{C.p_yellow_Yellow}}

Random Samples

The computer will randomly select one Box (Yellow or Green). Then, it will draw a sequence of {{C.N_size}} marbles from the selected Box, recording the color and replacing the marble in the Box after each draw. Then, the probability of drawing a yellow marble is always the same, and it is possible to draw 4 marbles of the same color from the Yellow or Green box since the marble is returned to the box after each draw.

The number of yellow and green marbles is informative of the box selected. However, the specific order is not informative since each marble drawn has the same probability of being yellow. Then, two sequences with the same number of marbles of each color are considered the same sample.

For example, all the combinations of one green marble and three yellow marbles are considered the same sample:

Sequences Sample Number of
yellow marbles
Number of
green marbles
3 1

Generate a Sample

There are 5 possible samples that can be generated from each Box (remember the marble is returned to the Box after each draw):

Samples Number of
yellow marbles
Number of
green marbles
4 0
3 1
2 2
1 3
0 4

Click on each Box below to draw {{C.N_size}} marbles from it.

Sequence Sample Number of
yellow marbles
Number of
green marbles

Sequence Sample Number of
yellow marbles
Number of
green marbles

Click the 'Next' button if you understand the process of drawing samples, or ask the experimenter if you have any questions.

{{ formfields }} {{ next_button }} {{ endblock }}