{{ block title }}
Equal Initial Probability
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<!-- still need to randomize things //-->
<h3> Scenario 1 </h3>
<p>
    Box Yellow is four times more probable than Green of being selected as the actual outcome. Then, the initial probability of outcome Y equals 80%. Please, indicate the probability of this outcome after observing different signals.
</p>
<br>
<ul>
    <li> The Yellow box has 15 yellow marbles and 5 green marbles, while the Green box has 15
        green marbles and 5 yellow marbles. The next table summarizes this information:</li>
</ul>
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Box</th>
        <th>Initial Probability of being selected</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Number of green marbles</th>
        <th>Total number of marbles</th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Yellow</td>
        <td>80%</td>
        <td>15</td>
        <td>5</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Green</td>
        <td>20%</td>
        <td>15</td>
        <td>5</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
</table>
<!-- insert table here // -->
<ul>
    <li> Then you observe two marbles coming from the same randomly selected box.
        Each marble is put back in the box before the next marble is also randomly
        selected. Indicate in the last column the probability of box Yellow being selected
        to generate the sample you observe.</li>
</ul>
<!-- table w/ slider // -->
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Sample of two Marbles</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Indicate the probability of the sample coming from the Yellow box
            (i.e. the final probability of outcome Y)
        </th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="yellow.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>2</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue1.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue1">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue2.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue2">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="green.png">
        </td>
        <td>0</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue3.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue3">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table>
</table>

<h3> Scenario 2 </h3>
<p>
    Box Yellow has the same probability as Green of being selected as the actual outcome. Then, the initial probability
    of outcome Y equals 50%. Please, indicate the probability of this outcome after observing different signals.
</p>
<br>
<ul>
    <li> •	The Yellow box has 19 yellow marbles and 1 green marble, while the Green box has 19 green marbles and 1 yellow marble. The next table summarizes this information:</li>
</ul>
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Box</th>
        <th>Initial Probability of being selected</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Number of green marbles</th>
        <th>Total number of marbles</th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Yellow</td>
        <td>80%</td>
        <td>19</td>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Green</td>
        <td>20%</td>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>19</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
</table>
<!-- insert table here // -->
<ul>
    <li> Then you observe two marbles coming from the same randomly selected box.
        Each marble is put back in the box before the next marble is also randomly
        selected. Indicate in the last column the probability of box Yellow being selected
        to generate the sample you observe.</li>
</ul>
<!-- table w/ slider // -->
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Sample of two Marbles</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Indicate the probability of the sample coming from the Yellow box
            (i.e. the final probability of outcome Y)
        </th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="yellow.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>2</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue4.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue4">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue5.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue5">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="green.png">
        </td>
        <td>0</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue6.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue6">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table>
</table>


<h3> Scenario 3 </h3>
<p>
    Box Yellow has the same probability as Green of being selected as the actual outcome. Then, the initial probability
    of outcome Y equals 50%. Please, indicate the probability of this outcome after observing different signals.
</p>
<br>
<ul>
    <li> Box Yellow is four times more probable than Green of being selected as the actual outcome. Then, the initial probability of outcome Y equals 80%. Please, indicate the probability of this outcome after observing different signals. </li>
</ul>
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Box</th>
        <th>Initial Probability of being selected</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Number of green marbles</th>
        <th>Total number of marbles</th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Yellow</td>
        <td>80%</td>
        <td>11</td>
        <td>9</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>Green</td>
        <td>20%</td>
        <td>9</td>
        <td>11</td>
        <td>20</td>
    </tr>
</table>
<!-- insert table here // -->
<ul>
    <li> Then you observe two marbles coming from the same randomly selected box.
        Each marble is put back in the box before the next marble is also randomly
        selected. Indicate in the last column the probability of box Yellow being selected
        to generate the sample you observe.</li>
</ul>
<!-- table w/ slider // -->
<table border="1">
    <tr>
        <th>Sample of two Marbles</th>
        <th>Number of yellow marbles</th>
        <th>Indicate the probability of the sample coming from the Yellow box
            (i.e. the final probability of outcome Y)
        </th>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="yellow.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>2</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue7.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue7">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="yellow.png">
        </td>
        <td>1</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue8.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue8">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
        <td>
            <img src="green.png">
            <img src="green.png">
        </td>
        <td>0</td>
        <td>
            <div class="slider">
                <input type="range" min="0" max="100" value="50" step="0.1" oninput="rangeValue9.innerText = this.value">
                <p id="rangeValue9">50</p>
            </div>
        </td>
    </tr>
</table>
</table>

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{{ next_button }}
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