{{ block title }} Higher Belief Survey {{ endblock }} {{ block content }}
There are two unknown outcomes: Y and G, and you can receive information about what is the
actual state. These signals convey different information, and you will have to decide the
probability of each state according to the initial probability of each outcome and the
information provided by different signals.
You can consider outcomes as boxes of different colors: Yellow and Green. Then, one is
selected with a known probability; this is the actual outcome. Each box has twenty marbles in
total and a different number of yellow and green marbles. Then, a random sample of marbles is
a signal about the box selected.
Be as accurate as possible, and carefully consider the probability of each outcome.