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If the Advisor receives an incorrect estimate, each of the two possible incorrect levels is equally likely. In other words, if the estimate is not equal to the true quality of the investment opportunity, there is a 1 in 2 chance (like flipping a coin) that it is equal to each of the other possible qualities.

So, for example, if the Quality in a round is High, then there is a 83.3 percent (5 in 6) chance that the Investor will receive an estimate equal to “High”, and there is a 16.7 percent (1 in 6) that the Advisor will receive an estimate equal to one of the other possible values of Quality (“Low” or “Medium”). Each of the other possible estimates is equally likely.

This estimate is private information. In other words, the Advisor can see the estimate, but the Investors will never be told what estimate their group’s Advisor received.

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