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     <h1>BLOCK 3: Instructions</h1>
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                <br>

<h2> Structure of the block </h2>
<ul>
  <li> In this block there are <b>2</b> main tasks. You need to:</li>
      <ul>
          <li> forecast the First Mover's choice, and </li>
          <li> forecast the Second Mover's choice. </li>
      </ul>
  <li> You will participate in 15 Forecast problems. </li>
  <li> Each problem is equally likely to be selected for payment. </li>
  <li> Thus, it is important for you to take each problem seriously. </li>
</ul>

<h2> Structure of task 1 </h2>
<ul>
    <li>There are 5 payment structures along with <b>one</b> forecast in each payment structure. You need to: </li>
        <ul>
            <li> forecast First Mover's decision. </li>
        </ul>
    <li> You would see the similar interface for each payment structure: </li>
</ul>
<br>

    <table class="mx-auto">
        <tr>
            <td class="hide_top & hide_left", colspan="3", rowspan="3"> </td>
            <td class="hide_top & hide_left & hide_right", colspan="4"> Second Mover choice </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td colspan="2">  A </td>
            <td colspan="2">  B </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td> First Mover payment</td>
            <td> Second Mover payment </td>
            <td> First Mover payment</td>
            <td> Second Mover payment </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td class="hide_top & hide_left & hide_bottom", rowspan="2"> First Mover choice </td>
            <td><input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"></td>
            <td class="hide_left"> A </td>
            <td> 350 tokens </td>
            <td> 400 tokens </td>
            <td> 200 tokens </td>
            <td> 500 tokens </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td><input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"></td>
            <td class="hide_left"> B </td>
            <td> 600 tokens </td>
            <td> 200 tokens </td>
            <td> 300 tokens </td>
            <td> 250 tokens </td>
        </tr>
    </table>
    <br>

<ul>
    <li>You are asked to forecast the percentage interval of First Mover's choice: </li>
        <ul>
            <li> What do you think is the percent chance that First Mover would choose A?  </li>
                <ul>
                    <li> 0%, 1%-20%, 21%-40%, 41%-60%, 61%-80%, 81%-99%, 100% </li>
                </ul>
        </ul>
</ul>


<h2> Structure of the task 2 </h2>
<ul>
    <li>There are 5 payment structures along with <b>two</b> forecasts in each payment structure. You need to: </li>
        <ul>
            <li> learn the choice of the First Mover, then </li>
            <li> forecast the Second Mover's decision </li>
        </ul>
    <li> You would see the similar interface for each payment structure: </li>
</ul>
        <br>
        <table class="mx-auto">
        <tr>
            <td class="hide_top & hide_left", colspan="4"> </td>
            <td> First Mover payment </td>
            <td> Second Mover payment </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td class="hide_top & hide_left & hide_bottom", rowspan="4"> First Mover choice </td>
            <td rowspan="2", style="background-color:LightGoldenrodYellow;"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </td>
            <td rowspan="2"> Second Mover choice </td>
            <td> <input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A </td>
            <td> 350 tokens </td>
            <td> 400 tokens </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td><input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; B </td>
            <td> 200 tokens </td>
            <td> 500 tokens </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td rowspan="2", style="background-color:LightGray;"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; B &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </td>
            <td rowspan="2"> Second Mover choice </td>
            <td> <input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A </td>
            <td> 600 tokens </td>
            <td> 200 tokens </td>
        </tr>
        <tr>
            <td><input type="radio" name="myButton" value="theValue" disabled onclick="alert('Sorry, this option is not available!')"> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; B </td>
            <td> 30 tokens </td>
            <td> 25 tokens </td>
        </tr>
        </table>
        <br>

<ul>
    <li>You are asked to forecast the percentage interval of the Second Mover's choice: </li>
        <ul>
            <li> What do you think is the percent chance that the Second Mover would choose A given the First Mover chose A?  </li>
                <ul>
                    <li> 0%, 1%-20%, 21%-40%, 41%-60%, 61%-80%, 81%-99%, 100% </li>
                </ul>
            <li> What do you think is the percent chance that the Second Mover would choose A given the First Mover chose B?  </li>
                <ul>
                    <li> 0%, 1%-20%, 21%-40%, 41%-60%, 61%-80%, 81%-99%, 100% </li>
                </ul>
        </ul>
    <li> Note that every forecast is important to determine your payment as until the end of the experiment you do not know what other participant has chosen. </li>
</ul>

<h2> Payments </h2>
<ul>
    <li> The payments for each question are determined as follows. </li>
    <li> One participant in this room (excluding you) will be picked at random and this participant's decision in block 2 will be retrieved.</li>
    <li> If the choice picked by the selected participant is A, the forecast error = (1-your choice)&sup2.</li>
    <li> If the choice picked by the selected participant is B, the forecast error = (your choice)&sup2.</li>
    <li> A uniform random number will be drawn form the interval from 0 to 1;</li>
    <li> You will receive £5 if the forecast error is below the random number and will not receive any additional payment otherwise;</li>
    <li> For example, if </li>
        <ul>
            <li>You selected 1%-20%, the selected participant chose A in the corresponding payment structure, and the random number that is generated by computer is 0.5</li>
                <ul>
                    <li> So your forecast error is (1-your choice)&sup2: (80% to 99%)&sup2 = 0.64 to 0.9801, because 0.5 < 0.64. Then you get £0</li>
                </ul>
            <li>You selected 41%-60%, the selected participant chose B in the corresponding payment structure, and the random number that is generated by computer is 0.7</li>
                <ul>
                    <li> So your forecast error is (your choice)&sup2: (41% to 60%)&sup2 = 0.1681 to 0.36, because 0.7 > 0.36. Then you get £5.00</li>
                </ul>
        </ul>
    <li> One out of 15 forecasts will be chosen at random.</li>
    <li> You will only see outcomes in the end of the experiment. </li>
    <li> <span class="red"><b>NOTE</b></span> &nbsp; Since your forecasts are made when you do not know what other participants have chosen. <b>The best thing you can do to gain the highest payment in this block is to simply state what you think.</b> </li>
    <li> Read this page carefully, we will test your comprehension in the next page.</li>
</ul>

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