{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block head_title %} Task 1 {% endblock %} {% block title %} {% endblock %} {% block styles %} {% endblock %} {% block content %}

Your response to Question 1 is given below.

Question 1
How likely do you think your leader has achieved the High Outcome?
Specifically, what is the chance out of 100 that your leader has achieved the High Outcome? {{ player.prior }}


In Question 2, you are asked to consider whether your prediction of your leader's performance will be different, given the outcome of the lottery.

Question 2
{{ if player.lottery_outcome == 1 }} Your group has won the lottery. {{ else }} Your group has lost the lottery. {{ endif }}
Recall that the probability of winning is {{ C.PROB_HIGH }} if your leader has achieved the High Outcome and {{ C.PROB_LOW }} if your leader has achieved the Low Outcome.

Now consider whether your prediction will be higher than, lower than, or the same as the one you stated in Question 1.
Specifically, given the outcome of the lottery, what is the chance out of 100 that your leader has achieved the High Outcome? {% formfield player.posterior label="" %}

{% endblock %}