# Change: Show Synthetic Historical Demand on Round 1 for Everyone

## Summary
Modified the historical demand display so that **everyone** (regardless of tool access level) sees the 25 pre-generated synthetic historical demand values on Round 1. From Round 2 onwards, they see their own actual demand history from completed rounds.

## Changes Made

### 1. Backend Logic (`newsvendor/__init__.py`)

#### In `Order.vars_for_template` (Lines 173-203):

**Before:**
```python
# Past demand: show only after the first round using player's own actual history
actual_hist = pv.get('actual_demand_history', [])
if player.round_number > 1 and actual_hist:
    # Format as discrete integers (no decimals)
    formatted_history = [f"{int(v)}" for v in actual_hist]
    # ... calculate stats ...
    has_history = True
else:
    formatted_history = []
    hist_mean = hist_std = hist_min = hist_max = None
    has_history = False
```

**After:**
```python
# Past demand: On Round 1, show synthetic history for everyone.
# From Round 2 onwards, show player's own actual demand history.
actual_hist = pv.get('actual_demand_history', [])

if player.round_number == 1:
    # Round 1: Show synthetic historical demand for everyone
    synthetic_hist = pv.get('fixed_scenario', {}).get('history', [])
    if synthetic_hist:
        formatted_history = [f"{int(v)}" for v in synthetic_hist]
        hist_mean = float(np.mean(synthetic_hist)) if synthetic_hist else None
        hist_std = float(np.std(synthetic_hist, ddof=1)) if len(synthetic_hist) > 1 else None
        hist_min = int(np.min(synthetic_hist)) if synthetic_hist else None
        hist_max = int(np.max(synthetic_hist)) if synthetic_hist else None
        has_history = True
    else:
        formatted_history = []
        hist_mean = hist_std = hist_min = hist_max = None
        has_history = False
elif player.round_number > 1 and actual_hist:
    # Round 2+: Show player's actual demand history from completed rounds
    formatted_history = [f"{int(v)}" for v in actual_hist]
    hist_mean = float(np.mean(actual_hist)) if actual_hist else None
    hist_std = float(np.std(actual_hist, ddof=1)) if len(actual_hist) > 1 else None
    hist_min = int(np.min(actual_hist)) if actual_hist else None
    hist_max = int(np.max(actual_hist)) if actual_hist else None
    has_history = True
else:
    formatted_history = []
    hist_mean = hist_std = hist_min = hist_max = None
    has_history = False
```

### 2. Template Changes (`newsvendor/Order.html`)

#### Historical Demand Section (Lines 17-38):

**Changes:**
1. Added conditional text based on round number
2. Changed fallback message from "will appear after first round" to "No historical demand data available"

**Key additions:**
```html
{% if round_number == 1 %}
<p>Historical demand data from similar past scenarios:</p>
{% else %}
<p>Past actual demand from your completed rounds:</p>
{% endif %}
```

## Behavior by Round

| Round | What Users See | Source |
|-------|---------------|--------|
| 1 | 25 synthetic historical demand values | `participant.vars['fixed_scenario']['history']` |
| 2 | 1 actual demand value (from Round 1) | `participant.vars['actual_demand_history']` |
| 3 | 2 actual demand values (from Rounds 1-2) | `participant.vars['actual_demand_history']` |
| 4 | 3 actual demand values (from Rounds 1-3) | `participant.vars['actual_demand_history']` |
| 5 | 4 actual demand values (from Rounds 1-4) | `participant.vars['actual_demand_history']` |

## Access Control Still Applied

The tiered access control for **summary statistics** remains:
- **Everyone** sees the demand values (synthetic on R1, actual on R2+)
- **Only forecasting tool users (tool_count ≥ 2)** see the summary statistics (mean, std, min, max, n)

## Testing Recommendations

1. **Round 1 - All tool levels**:
   - Start a new session
   - Check participants with `tool_count=1` (no tools)
   - Verify they see 25 synthetic demand values
   - Verify they do NOT see summary statistics

2. **Round 1 - Forecasting tool users**:
   - Check participants with `tool_count=2+`
   - Verify they see 25 synthetic demand values
   - Verify they DO see summary statistics

3. **Round 2+ progression**:
   - Complete Round 1
   - On Round 2, verify the display switches from synthetic to actual history
   - Verify only 1 value shown (the demand from Round 1)
   - Continue through rounds to verify history grows

4. **Verify synthetic history quality**:
   - The 25 values should match the scenario's distribution
   - All values should be discrete integers (no decimals)
   - Mean/std should be close to the assigned scenario parameters