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This is a follow-up study. The participants of the first study were shown the following instructions which are important for you as well:

There are two urns, one red and one blue, each containing 4 balls as displayed below. All balls are labeled with a letter 'I', the meaning of which will be explained on the next page. One of the two urns will be randomly selected in the beginning. You do not know which urn will be selected. It will remain the same throughout this study.


Your task will be to guess which urn you think was selected. To do so you will receive hints about the selected urn in form of reports from participants of the first study. You will get further information on the next page.

The selected urn contained 4 balls, 3 of the same color and 1 of the opposite color, as shown on the previous page. All balls from the selected urn were put into a black box. They were labeled with the letter 'I', which stands for 'informative'.
For the moment you do not know the color of the selected urn and therefore the 4 informative balls are displayed in grey (although they have a color, either red or blue).

The black box also contained 6 other balls that do not come from the urn. These 6 balls were labeled with the letter 'U', which stands for 'uninformative'. Knowing the color of the uninformative balls did not help to identify the selected urn. The black box and the 10 balls inside it remained the same throughout the entire study.



This study has 9 experiments with 3 rounds each in total. In each experiment, the information provided in previous experiments can be disregarded. In each round of the experiments you get one of two possible hints:

In every round you will be asked to make a guess about the urn that has been selected in the beginning. You will receive a bonus which depends on the accuracy of your answer to one of the estimmates (you do not know which one). The procedure for calculating your bonus is described in detail below. You may skip these details. The important thing is that the procedure guarantees that you should expect to maximize your bonus by reporting what you truly think the chances are in each question.

Before we start, we need to ensure that you understand the instructions. We ask you to answer 6 simple questions. If you make more than one mistake, we will have to exclude you from the rest of the study.

You may view the instructions again by going back to the previous page (click 'back' below).

{{ formfield 'test1' }} {{ formfield 'test2' }} {{ formfield 'test3' }} {{ formfield 'test4' }} {{ formfield 'test5' }} {{ formfield 'test6' }}

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