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    Part 2 - Instructions
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    <p>
        In part 2, you will be asked to give your probability judgement for six times:
        once at the beginning, and five times after you have received information about the stock price.
        <b>You can get up to 800 points in this part.</b>
    </p>
    <p>
        To help you decide if the price was higher than 3200 or lower than 3200, you will be given five pieces of information
        regarding the stock price on day 240 in the form of colored balls being drawn from a virtual urn.
        There are two possible urns, i.e., Urn High and Urn Low. Each urn contains blue and red balls.
    </p>
    <p>
        One of the two urns is chosen based on the stock price on day 240. <b>Urn High is chosen by the computer if
        the stock price on day 240 was higher than 3200 points. Urn Low is chosen by the computer if the stock price on day 240
        was lower than 3200 points.</b> For instance, if the price of the stock on day 240 is 3400 points,
        you will receive information in the form of balls being drawn from Urn High.
        If the price of the stock on day 240 is 3000 points, you will receive information in the form of balls being drawn from Urn Low.
    </p>
    <p>
        Urn High contains 5 blue balls and 3 red balls. Urn Low contains 3 blue balls and 5 red balls.
        After each ball is randomly drawn by the computer, you will observe the color of the ball. The drawn ball is then put back into the urn.
        Therefore, the chosen urn will always contain the same eight balls.
    </p>
    <p>
        <div style="padding-left: 140px"> <img src="{{ static 'instruction2.png' }}" width="600px"/><br> </div>
    </p>
    <p>
        You will be asked to report your probability judgement, expressed in percentage, regarding the stock price on day 240 being either higher or lower than 3200 points.
        You answer once before receiving any information and once after receiving each of the five pieces of information.
        Therefore, you will make a total of six probability judgements.
    </p>
    <p>
        <b>One of these six probability judgments will be randomly selected to determine whether you will get <u>800 points</u> from this part.</b>

    </p>
    <p>
        To determine whether you will get the 800 points, the computer will draw a random number from 0 to 100.
            <ul>
                <li>If your probability judgement regarding the stock price on day 240 being higher than 3200 points <u>is larger or equal to</u> that random number,
                    you get 800 points if the stock price on day 240 was higher than 3200 points or get nothing otherwise.</li>
                <li>If your probability judgement regarding the stock price on day 240 being higher than 3200 points <u>is lower than</u> that random number,
                    you get 800 points with probability equal to that random number.</li>
            </ul>
    </p>
    <p>
        Suppose you think that it is equally likely that the stock price on day 240 was higher than 3200,
        i.e., you report your probability judgement of 50%.
    </p>
        <ul>
            <li>If the computer draws a random number 10,</li>
            <ul style="padding-left: 25px;">
                <li>you get 800 if the price on day 240 was higher than 3200, and</li>
                <li>you get 0 if the price on day 240 was lower than 3200.</li>
            </ul>
        </ul>
        <ul>
            <li>If the computer draws a random number 90,</li>
            <ul style="padding-left: 25px">
                <li>you get 800 with probability 90%, and</li>
                <li>you get 0 with probability 10%.</li>
            </ul>
        </ul>
    <p>
        To illustrate this point, suppose you think that it is equally likely that the stock price on day 240 was higher than 3200,
        i.e., your probability judgement is 50%.
    </p>
    <p>
        <ul>
        <li>Suppose that instead of your true probability judgement (50%), you report a lower probability judgement, say 40%.
        Now, it is more likely that the computer will draw a random number which is larger than the probability judgement you reported.
        In particular, for any number between 40 and 50,
        you will now get the 800 points with probability equal to the random number (between 40 and 50%)
        which is lower than your true probability judgement regarding the price being higher than 3200 points (50%).</li><br>

        <li>Suppose that instead of your true probability judgement (50%), you report a higher probability judgement, say 60%.
        Now, it is more likely that the computer will draw a random number which is smaller than the probability judgement you reported.
        In particular, for any number between 50 and 60,
        you will now get the 800 points with the probability of the stock price being higher than 3200 points (50%)
        which is lower than the probability equal to the random number (between 50 and 60%).</li></ul>
    <p>
        <b>If this explanation seems confusing, you just need to remember that to have the maximum chance of getting the 800 points
        you should report your true probability judgements regarding the stock price on day 240.</b>
    </p>
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